Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (TSE:ATD) After Its Annual Report

Last week, you might have seen that Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (TSE:ATD) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.8% to CA$68.90 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$73b and statutory earnings per share of US$2.71. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Alimentation Couche-Tard's seven analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$73.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 5.6% to US$2.87. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$75.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.84 in 2026. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

See our latest analysis for Alimentation Couche-Tard

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of CA$82.84, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Alimentation Couche-Tard's market value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Alimentation Couche-Tard, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$93.96 and the most bearish at CA$78.99 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Alimentation Couche-Tard's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.6% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Alimentation Couche-Tard is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Alimentation Couche-Tard analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Alimentation Couche-Tard is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.