Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's been a mediocre week for Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (TSE:GOOS) shareholders, with the stock dropping 14% to CA$13.67 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues of CA$608m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at CA$1.42, missing estimates by 7.4%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Canada Goose Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Canada Goose Holdings' eleven analysts is for revenues of CA$1.38b in 2026. This would reflect a credible 4.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 42% to CA$1.07. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$1.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$1.08 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CA$14.36, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Canada Goose Holdings at CA$25.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$11.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Canada Goose Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 3.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.5% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Canada Goose Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Canada Goose Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Canada Goose Holdings , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.