Stock Analysis

Can You Imagine How First National Financial's (TSE:FN) Shareholders Feel About The 73% Share Price Increase?

It hasn't been the best quarter for First National Financial Corporation (TSE:FN) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 13% in that time. On the bright side the returns have been quite good over the last half decade. It has returned a market beating 73% in that time.

See our latest analysis for First National Financial

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over half a decade, First National Financial managed to grow its earnings per share at 5.4% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 12% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

TSX:FN Past and Future Earnings, February 18th 2020
TSX:FN Past and Future Earnings, February 18th 2020

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. This free interactive report on First National Financial's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

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What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, First National Financial's TSR for the last 5 years was 161%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that First National Financial shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 41% over one year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 21%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Be aware that First National Financial is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

About TSX:FN

First National Financial

First National Financial Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, originates, underwrites, and services residential and commercial mortgages in Canada.

High growth potential established dividend payer.

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