Stock Analysis

Light (BVMF:LIGT3) shareholders are up 20% this past week, but still in the red over the last five years

BOVESPA:LIGT3
Source: Shutterstock

Over the last month the Light S.A. (BVMF:LIGT3) has been much stronger than before, rebounding by 101%. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been stomach churning. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 76% in that time. While the recent increase might be a green shoot, we're certainly hesitant to rejoice. The million dollar question is whether the company can justify a long term recovery.

While the last five years has been tough for Light shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

View our latest analysis for Light

SWOT Analysis for Light

Strength
  • No major strengths identified for LIGT3.
Weakness
  • Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Opportunity
  • Expected to breakeven next year.
  • Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
  • Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over five years Light's earnings per share dropped significantly, falling to a loss, with the share price also lower. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it's hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. But we would generally expect a lower price, given the situation.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
BOVESPA:LIGT3 Earnings Per Share Growth May 5th 2023

Dive deeper into Light's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Light's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 3.5% in the twelve months, Light shareholders did even worse, losing 54%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 12% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Light , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Brazilian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.