Stock Analysis

Is Eneva (BVMF:ENEV3) A Risky Investment?

BOVESPA:ENEV3
Source: Shutterstock

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Eneva S.A. (BVMF:ENEV3) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

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What Is Eneva's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2020 Eneva had debt of R$7.30b, up from R$5.36b in one year. However, it also had R$2.59b in cash, and so its net debt is R$4.71b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
BOVESPA:ENEV3 Debt to Equity History January 8th 2021

How Healthy Is Eneva's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Eneva had liabilities of R$1.55b falling due within a year, and liabilities of R$6.92b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of R$2.59b as well as receivables valued at R$408.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by R$5.47b.

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Eneva has a market capitalization of R$18.8b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Eneva has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.7 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 2.6 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. The good news is that Eneva grew its EBIT a smooth 31% over the last twelve months. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Eneva can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Eneva produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 60% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Eneva was the fact that it seems able to grow its EBIT confidently. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. To be specific, it seems about as good at covering its interest expense with its EBIT as wet socks are at keeping your feet warm. Considering this range of data points, we think Eneva is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Eneva (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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