Results: Engie Brasil Energia S.A. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Engie Brasil Energia S.A. (BVMF:EGIE3) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.6% to R$40.41 in the past week. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at R$2.5b, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 11%, coming in at R$0.80 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Engie Brasil Energia after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Engie Brasil Energia

Taking into account the latest results, Engie Brasil Energia's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be R$10.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to descend 16% to R$4.29 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$10.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$4.29 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at R$43.72. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Engie Brasil Energia, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at R$50.00 and the most bearish at R$38.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Engie Brasil Energia's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 0.8% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.3% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.9% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Engie Brasil Energia is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Engie Brasil Energia going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Engie Brasil Energia (at least 3 which can't be ignored) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.