We Think Magazine Luiza's (BVMF:MGLU3) Robust Earnings Are Conservative

Even though Magazine Luiza S.A.'s (BVMF:MGLU3) recent earnings release was robust, the market didn't seem to notice. We think that investors have missed some encouraging factors underlying the profit figures.

Our free stock report includes 3 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Magazine Luiza. Read for free now.

Examining Cashflow Against Magazine Luiza's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to March 2025, Magazine Luiza had an accrual ratio of -1.18. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of R$18b during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of R$433.6m. Magazine Luiza's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. Importantly, we note an unusual tax situation, which we discuss below, has impacted the accruals ratio.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

An Unusual Tax Situation

In addition to the notable accrual ratio, we can see that Magazine Luiza received a tax benefit of R$375m. It's always a bit noteworthy when a company is paid by the tax man, rather than paying the tax man. The receipt of a tax benefit is obviously a good thing, on its own. And since it previously lost money, it may well simply indicate the realisation of past tax losses. However, the devil in the detail is that these kind of benefits only impact in the year they are booked, and are often one-off in nature. Assuming the tax benefit is not repeated every year, we could see its profitability drop noticeably, all else being equal.

Our Take On Magazine Luiza's Profit Performance

While Magazine Luiza's accrual ratio stands testament to its strong cashflow, and indicates good quality earnings, the fact that it received a tax benefit suggests that this year's profit may not be a great guide to its sustainable profit run-rate. Considering all the aforementioned, we'd venture that Magazine Luiza's profit result is a pretty good guide to its true profitability, albeit a bit on the conservative side. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. To help with this, we've discovered 3 warning signs (1 is a bit concerning!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Magazine Luiza.

Our examination of Magazine Luiza has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.