Results: Blau Farmacêutica S.A. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Blau Farmacêutica S.A. (BVMF:BLAU3) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. The company beat expectations with revenues of R$474m arriving 3.2% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were R$0.39, 7.1% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Blau Farmacêutica after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Blau Farmacêutica

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Blau Farmacêutica's eight analysts is for revenues of R$1.93b in 2025. This reflects a notable 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 56% to R$1.65. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of R$1.90b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$1.40 in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a nice gain to earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The consensus price target rose 20% to R$17.00, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Blau Farmacêutica, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at R$22.50 and the most bearish at R$14.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Blau Farmacêutica's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 12% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 8.6% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 21% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Blau Farmacêutica is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Blau Farmacêutica's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Blau Farmacêutica. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Blau Farmacêutica analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Blau Farmacêutica you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.