Here's Why Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Vale S.A. (BVMF:VALE3) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

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What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

What Is Vale's Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2024 Vale had debt of R$105.3b, up from R$74.3b in one year. However, it also had R$31.0b in cash, and so its net debt is R$74.3b.

How Healthy Is Vale's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Vale had liabilities of R$81.1b due within 12 months, and liabilities of R$201.6b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of R$31.0b and R$21.4b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total R$230.2b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's huge R$229.7b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.

Check out our latest analysis for Vale

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Vale has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.0. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 11.2 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Vale if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 20% cut to EBIT over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Vale's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Vale recorded free cash flow of 38% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

Mulling over Vale's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Vale's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Vale that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.