Vale S.A.

BOVESPA:VALE3 Stock Report

Market Cap: R$356.5b

Vale Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Vale is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 17.4% and 0.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 24% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 18.1% in 3 years.

Key information

17.4%

Earnings growth rate

24.04%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining earnings growth21.2%
Revenue growth rate0.4%
Future return on equity18.15%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated22 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 25

VALE3: Iron Ore Assumptions And Execution Risks Will Shape Balanced Future Returns

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Vale from R$69.39 to R$75.65, citing a series of higher price targets from R$14.80 to R$19.50 issued by major banks and updated models that incorporate revised profit margins and P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vale shows a mix of optimism and caution, with higher targets from some large banks set against a series of downgrades and more restrained views from other bearish analysts.
Narrative Update • May 05

VALE3: Base Metals Mix And Copper Strength Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have nudged the R$ fair value estimate for Vale higher to R$104.54 from R$101.20. The updated estimate reflects a series of recent price target increases, even as analysts factor in a slightly higher discount rate, more conservative revenue growth, modestly lower profit margins and a higher future P/E assumption.
Narrative Update • Apr 20

VALE3: Base Metals Strength And Iron Ore Risks Will Shape Future Returns

Analysts have slightly lifted the R$ fair value estimate for Vale, reflecting broadly higher Street price targets. These emphasize stronger base metals contributions, a higher assumed future P/E and more cautious views on revenue growth and profit margins.
Narrative Update • Apr 05

VALE3: Copper Strength And Base Metals Mix Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have slightly reduced the fair value estimate for Vale. The updated price target of R$101.20 reflects a higher discount rate and more conservative revenue growth assumptions, partly offset by a marginally stronger profit margin outlook and a lower future P/E.
Narrative Update • Mar 22

VALE3: Base Metals And Copper Mix Will Drive Future Returns

Narrative Update on Vale The analyst price target for Vale edges slightly lower in the model, reflecting a marginal trim to fair value to R$88.67. Analysts see the shares more fully reflecting iron ore and base metals assumptions after a series of target increases and recent rating downgrades that emphasize valuation and oversupply risks.
Narrative Update • Mar 08

VALE3: Base Metals And Copper Shift Will Support Future Returns

Our analyst price target for Vale has been revised higher to R$88.95 from R$80.25, reflecting Street research that has generally nudged targets up on stronger base metals contributions and copper demand, even as analysts flag iron ore price softness, steel demand headwinds, and potential oversupply risks. Analyst Commentary Street research on Vale has turned more mixed recently, with several price target increases sitting alongside fresh rating downgrades.
Narrative Update • Feb 22

VALE3: Copper And Base Metals Mix Will Drive Future Upside Potential

The updated analyst price target for Vale implies fair value rising from about R$86.67 to roughly R$102.54. Analysts point to stronger margin assumptions, a lower discount rate and a lower future P/E, supported by recent research that highlights higher copper exposure even as iron ore faces potential oversupply risk.
Analysis Article • Feb 19

There May Be Reason For Hope In Vale's (BVMF:VALE3) Disappointing Earnings

Vale S.A.'s ( BVMF:VALE3 ) earnings announcement last week didn't impress shareholders. While the headline numbers were...
Narrative Update • Feb 07

VALE3: Iron Ore Oversupply And Execution Risks Will Pressure Future Earnings

Our updated analyst price target for Vale edges slightly lower by about $0.65, as analysts balance more constructive assumptions on revenue growth with modestly softer profit margin expectations and a small adjustment in the assumed P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vale has been mixed, with some firms lifting price targets and others sounding more cautious.
Analysis Article • Jan 30

Returns At Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Appear To Be Weighed Down

If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. In a perfect...
Narrative Update • Jan 24

VALE3: Iron Ore Oversupply Risk Will Pressure Earnings Power And Sentiment

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Vale from $54.24 to $70.04, reflecting mixed views on iron ore oversupply risk and cost discipline, along with generally higher Street price targets clustered around $12 to $15.50. Analyst Commentary Street research around Vale highlights a split view, with some firms raising price targets on the back of modeling updates and cost control, while bearish analysts flag iron ore market risks and temper expectations for upside.
Narrative Update • Jan 09

VALE3: Base And Precious Metals Exposure Will Drive Future Upside Potential

The updated analyst price target for Vale implies a fair value move from about $84 to $87, as analysts balance oversupply risks in iron ore with improving views on base and precious metals exposure, alongside a revised future P/E assumption of 13.2x. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vale reflects a split view, with some caution around iron ore oversupply risk and a cluster of more constructive opinions tied to base and precious metals exposure, as well as updated models after recent company results.
Narrative Update • Dec 25

VALE3: Base Metals Expansion And Cost Discipline Will Drive Balanced Future Returns

Vale's analyst price target has been nudged higher, with fair value estimates rising by about $3.50 per share as analysts factor in slightly stronger long term revenue growth, modestly better margins, and a richer future earnings multiple following a series of recent target hikes from major banks. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vale reflects a generally constructive stance, with a clear tilt toward incremental upgrades and higher price targets as analysts recalibrate models following the latest quarterly update.
Narrative Update • Dec 11

VALE3: Base Metals And Copper Expansion Will Drive Balanced Future Return Potential

The analyst price target for Vale has been nudged higher to about $14.50 per share from roughly $14 previously, as analysts cite updated post Q3 models, improving base metals performance, and constructive views on copper driven by tight supply and stronger precious metal prices. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates reflect a broadly constructive tone on Vale, with multiple firms raising price targets as they refresh models following the Q3 report and factor in stronger trends in base and precious metals.
Narrative Update • Nov 27

VALE3: Base Metals Segment Performance Will Drive 2026 Profitability Upside

Vale’s analyst price target has been raised from $71.08 to $75.14. Analysts cite constructive views following the company's Q3 report, improved Base Metals segment performance, and ongoing cost control as key reasons for the increased valuation.
Narrative Update • Nov 12

VALE3: Revenue Momentum And Base Metals Performance Will Offset Market Caution

Analysts have modestly increased their price target for Vale, raising it by $0.76. This adjustment reflects stronger revenue growth forecasts and improved performance in the Base Metals segment.
Analysis Article • Nov 08

Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...
Narrative Update • Oct 29

Higher Precious Metal Prices Will Drive Earnings Thanks To Copper Supply Disruptions

Vale's analyst price target has been modestly increased, rising from $13.50 to $14. Analysts cite improved profit margins and supportive trends in precious and base metal markets as contributing factors.
Analysis Article • Oct 21

Return Trends At Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Aren't Appealing

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...
Narrative Update • Oct 14

Bacaba And Voisey's Bay Projects Will Fuel Global Decarbonization Efforts

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Vale from approximately $67.35 to $70.15. This change reflects tempered optimism due to the company's ongoing cost-cutting, gradual copper expansion, and broadly cautious sentiment on iron ore market fundamentals.
Analysis Article • Oct 02

Some Confidence Is Lacking In Vale S.A.'s (BVMF:VALE3) P/E

It's not a stretch to say that Vale S.A.'s ( BVMF:VALE3 ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.6x right now seems...
Narrative Update • Sep 27

Bacaba And Voisey's Bay Projects Will Fuel Global Decarbonization Efforts

Vale’s consensus price target was modestly raised to R$67.35 as bullish analysts cite resilient iron ore prices and cost reductions, though sentiment is tempered by concerns over China demand, macro headwinds, and regulatory risks. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts note improved conviction in iron ore price resilience and potential for recovery in global steel demand.
Narrative Update • Sep 05

Bacaba And Voisey's Bay Projects Will Fuel Global Decarbonization Efforts

Vale’s fair value estimate saw a negligible reduction, as consensus revenue growth and discount rate projections remained largely unchanged, resulting in only a minor decrease in the analyst price target from R$67.03 to R$66.11. What's in the News Vale and BHP offered $1.4B to settle a UK class action lawsuit related to the Mariana dam disaster, but claimants’ lawyers are demanding about $3B (Financial Times).
Analysis Article • Aug 07

Some May Be Optimistic About Vale's (BVMF:VALE3) Earnings

BOVESPA:VALE3 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Vale's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...
Analysis Article • Aug 01

Industry Analysts Just Made A Substantial Upgrade To Their Vale S.A. (BVMF:VALE3) Revenue Forecasts

Vale S.A. ( BVMF:VALE3 ) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades...
Analysis Article • Jul 26

Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Analysis Article • Jun 20

There Is A Reason Vale S.A.'s (BVMF:VALE3) Price Is Undemanding

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7x Vale S.A. ( BVMF:VALE3 ) may be sending bullish signals at the moment...
Analysis Article • Jun 02

Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Has Some Way To Go To Become A Multi-Bagger

There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Typically, we'll want to notice a...
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New Narrative • Nov 07

Iron Ore Strategy And Cost Efficiency To Drive Growth Amidst Legal And Market Challenges

Strategic focus on cost efficiency and premium iron ore could enhance margins and market competitiveness.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

BOVESPA:VALE3 - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (BRL Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/2028213,09442,24933,28158,75019
12/31/2027206,68340,98127,83150,53722
12/31/2026206,56642,51823,69845,00022
3/31/2026214,86415,60316,54248,816N/A
12/31/2025213,59513,81415,37548,765N/A
9/30/2025213,32030,18516,08151,126N/A
6/30/2025209,59728,95411,23446,544N/A
3/31/2025211,52531,4656,55142,103N/A
12/31/2024206,00531,59215,10150,199N/A
9/30/2024211,10948,25124,98156,702N/A
6/30/2024210,09348,72930,18061,642N/A
3/31/2024206,11638,71034,27364,753N/A
12/31/2023208,06639,94036,45965,905N/A
9/30/2023206,29647,51723,55452,283N/A
6/30/2023206,41456,93927,33255,025N/A
3/31/2023213,63072,58735,30863,400N/A
12/31/2022226,50886,10630,01758,201N/A
9/30/2022237,09596,96033,23158,698N/A
6/30/2022249,433101,48960,75489,169N/A
3/31/2022281,451124,56984,349112,232N/A
12/31/2021293,524133,712109,465136,766N/A
9/30/2021296,709116,999133,655161,108N/A
6/30/2021290,197104,799116,684139,427N/A
3/31/2021243,63966,78783,680105,783N/A
12/31/2020206,09835,58853,48875,208N/A
9/30/2020170,61015,48030,62651,578N/A
6/30/2020153,3686,40722,41842,221N/A
3/31/2020148,93973429,28746,755N/A
12/31/2019144,6353,959N/A47,282N/A
9/30/2019145,07614,222N/A48,403N/A
6/30/2019142,27413,433N/A47,588N/A
3/31/2019137,50314,162N/A49,090N/A
12/31/2018134,48325,967N/A47,799N/A
9/30/2018126,85515,618N/A47,442N/A
6/30/2018117,59317,354N/A39,562N/A
3/31/2018109,72217,467N/A37,582N/A
12/31/2017108,53220,235N/A39,154N/A
9/30/2017109,35721,669N/A36,743N/A
6/30/2017102,58816,136N/A36,988N/A
3/31/2017100,80119,335N/A33,297N/A
12/31/201694,63317,470N/A21,635N/A
9/30/201679,220-20,596N/A18,235N/A
6/30/201680,739-29,215N/A16,376N/A
3/31/201680,604-27,729N/A11,999N/A
12/31/201578,057-43,553N/A15,719N/A
9/30/201585,970-15,819N/A13,380N/A
6/30/201583,250-12,537N/A14,090N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: VALE3's forecast earnings growth (17.4% per year) is above the savings rate (12.4%).

Earnings vs Market: VALE3's earnings (17.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the BR market (12.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: VALE3's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: VALE3's revenue (0.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the BR market (6.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: VALE3's revenue (0.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: VALE3's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (18.1%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/26 00:25
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/26 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Vale S.A. is covered by 41 analysts. 22 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Leonardo CorreaBarclays
Amos FletcherBarclays
Mary Cleia da SilvaBB Banco de Investimento S.A.