Vale Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

Vale is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 0.2% and 0.5% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 2.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 19.3% in 3 years.

Key information

0.2%

Earnings growth rate

2.5%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining earnings growth	1.9%
Revenue growth rate	0.5%
Future return on equity	19.3%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	29 Apr 2024

Recent future growth updates

Earnings Release: Here's Why Analysts Cut Their Vale S.A. (BVMF:VALE3) Price Target To R$75.44

Apr 27

Recent updates

Earnings Release: Here's Why Analysts Cut Their Vale S.A. (BVMF:VALE3) Price Target To R$75.44

Apr 27

We Think Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

Feb 07

Little Excitement Around Vale S.A.'s (BVMF:VALE3) Earnings

Jan 02

Shareholders Would Enjoy A Repeat Of Vale's (BVMF:VALE3) Recent Growth In Returns

Dec 15

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

BOVESPA:VALE3 - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (BRL Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	211,047	45,174	29,950	61,561	18
12/31/2025	208,368	44,528	24,737	55,568	21
12/31/2024	209,861	49,294	22,289	56,329	20
3/31/2024	206,116	38,710	34,273	64,753	N/A
12/31/2023	208,066	39,940	36,459	65,905	N/A
9/30/2023	206,296	47,517	23,900	52,283	N/A
6/30/2023	206,414	56,939	27,332	55,025	N/A
3/31/2023	213,630	72,587	35,308	63,400	N/A
12/31/2022	226,508	86,106	30,017	58,201	N/A
9/30/2022	237,095	96,960	33,231	58,698	N/A
6/30/2022	249,433	101,489	60,754	89,169	N/A
3/31/2022	281,451	124,569	84,349	112,232	N/A
12/31/2021	293,524	133,712	109,465	136,766	N/A
9/30/2021	296,709	116,999	133,655	161,108	N/A
6/30/2021	290,197	104,799	116,684	139,427	N/A
3/31/2021	243,639	66,787	83,680	105,783	N/A
12/31/2020	206,098	35,588	53,488	75,208	N/A
9/30/2020	170,610	15,480	30,626	51,578	N/A
6/30/2020	153,368	6,407	22,418	42,221	N/A
3/31/2020	148,939	734	29,287	46,755	N/A
12/31/2019	144,635	3,959	33,460	47,282	N/A
9/30/2019	145,076	14,222	33,948	48,403	N/A
6/30/2019	142,274	13,433	33,943	47,588	N/A
3/31/2019	137,503	14,162	35,771	49,090	N/A
12/31/2018	134,483	25,967	33,900	47,799	N/A
9/30/2018	126,855	15,618	36,322	47,442	N/A
6/30/2018	117,593	17,354	29,350	39,562	N/A
3/31/2018	109,722	17,467	25,977	37,582	N/A
12/31/2017	108,532	20,235	N/A	39,154	N/A
9/30/2017	109,357	21,669	N/A	36,743	N/A
6/30/2017	102,588	16,136	N/A	36,988	N/A
3/31/2017	100,801	19,335	N/A	33,297	N/A
12/31/2016	94,633	17,470	N/A	21,635	N/A
9/30/2016	79,220	-20,596	N/A	18,235	N/A
6/30/2016	80,739	-29,215	N/A	16,376	N/A
3/31/2016	80,604	-27,729	N/A	11,999	N/A
12/31/2015	78,057	-43,553	N/A	15,719	N/A
9/30/2015	85,970	-15,819	N/A	13,380	N/A
6/30/2015	83,250	-12,537	N/A	14,090	N/A
3/31/2015	83,893	-14,493	N/A	20,284	N/A
12/31/2014	82,619	3,139	N/A	27,792	N/A
9/30/2014	95,087	-9,269	N/A	28,999	N/A
6/30/2014	102,648	2,090	N/A	32,716	N/A
3/31/2014	102,673	-288	N/A	33,428	N/A
12/31/2013	101,490	119	N/A	32,233	N/A
9/30/2013	95,986	9,655	N/A	34,824	N/A
6/30/2013	90,537	4,966	N/A	36,617	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: VALE3's forecast earnings growth (0.2% per year) is below the savings rate (9.8%).

Earnings vs Market: VALE3's earnings (0.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the BR market (13.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: VALE3's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: VALE3's revenue (0.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the BR market (7.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: VALE3's revenue (0.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: VALE3's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (19.3%).

Vale Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Earnings Release: Here's Why Analysts Cut Their Vale S.A. (BVMF:VALE3) Price Target To R$75.44

Vale S. A Provides Production Guidance for the Year 2024

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13%

Vale S. A Provides Production Guidance for the Year 2023, 2024, 2026 and 2030+

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14%

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 18%

Recent updates

Manara Minerals Investment Company completed the acquisition of 10% stake in Energy Transition Metals business of Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3).

Earnings Release: Here's Why Analysts Cut Their Vale S.A. (BVMF:VALE3) Price Target To R$75.44

Now 20% overvalued

First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: R$1.93 (vs R$2.14 in 1Q 2023)

Vale S. A Provides Production Guidance for the Year 2024

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13%

Now 22% overvalued

Vale S.A. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 24, 2024

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) agreed to acquire remaining 45% stake in Aliança Geração de Energia S.A. from Cemig Geração e Transmissão S.A. for BRL 2.7 billion.

Upcoming dividend of R$2.74 per share

Dividend of R$2.74 announced

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

We Think Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Vale S.A. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Jan 30, 2024

Vale S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 26, 2024

Little Excitement Around Vale S.A.'s (BVMF:VALE3) Earnings

Shareholders Would Enjoy A Repeat Of Vale's (BVMF:VALE3) Recent Growth In Returns

Vale S. A Provides Production Guidance for the Year 2023, 2024, 2026 and 2030+

Vale Sa Announces English Court of Appeal Dismisses Application for Permission to Appeal Against the Court's Jurisdiction

Upcoming dividend of R$2.33 per share at 6.9% yield

Vale S.A. Announces Approval of Distribution, Scheduled to Be Paid December 1, 2023

Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.66 (vs US$0.95 in 3Q 2022)

We Think Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

Vale S.A. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Oct 26, 2023

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14%

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At Vale (BVMF:VALE3)

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 18%

Upcoming dividend of R$1.92 per share at 7.5% yield

New minor risk - Profit margin trend

Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Engine No. 1 LP entered into binding agreement to acquire 3% stake in Energy Transition Metals business of Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) for an enterprise value of $26 billion.

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14%

Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden) (SASE:1211) and an undisclosed public investment firm entered into binding agreement to acquire 10% stake in Energy Transition Metals business of Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3).

Vale Reportedly Close to Deal to Divest 10% of Base Metals Business

Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

Vale S.A. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Jul 27, 2023

Vale S.A. Appoints Manuel Lino Silva De Sousa Oliveira as Lead Independent Director

Why We Like The Returns At Vale (BVMF:VALE3)

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 19%

Vale S.A. Announces Board's Committees

First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12%

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 18%

Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Knows How To Allocate Capital Effectively

Upcoming dividend of R$1.83 per share at 4.5% yield

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17%

Full year 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations

GM Reportedly Looks to Deepen Mining Ties with Stake in Brazil’s Vale

Vale S.A. to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Feb 16, 2023

Vale S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 28, 2023

Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

Vale S.A. Announces Board Committee Changes

Vale S. A Provides Production Guidance for the Year 2022, 2023 and 2026

Suitors Reportedly Line Up for Stake in Vale’s Base Metals Ops

Vale S.A. Announces Reorganization of Nickel and Copper in Brazil

Consensus forecasts updated

Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Knows How To Allocate Capital Effectively

Vale S.A. Announces the Resignation of Luiz Eduardo Fróes do Amaral Osorio from Executive Officer for Institutional Relations and Communication

Upcoming dividend of R$3.57 per share

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11%

Vale's (BVMF:VALE3) Conservative Accounting Might Explain Soft Earnings

Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind

Vale S.A. Provides Production Guidance for the Year 2022

Vale S.A.'s (BVMF:VALE3) Earnings Are Not Doing Enough For Some Investors

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop