Vale Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

Vale is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 6.2% and 2.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 10.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 17.8% in 3 years.

Key information

6.2%

Earnings growth rate

10.8%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining earnings growth	4.1%
Revenue growth rate	2.8%
Future return on equity	17.8%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	24 Apr 2025

Recent future growth updates

Earnings Release: Here's Why Analysts Cut Their Vale S.A. (BVMF:VALE3) Price Target To R$75.44

Apr 27

Recent updates

Here's Why Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

Apr 16

Why We're Not Concerned About Vale S.A.'s (BVMF:VALE3) Share Price

Mar 11

Iron Ore Strategy And Cost Efficiency To Drive Growth Amidst Legal And Market Challenges

Nov 07 Strategic focus on cost efficiency and premium iron ore could enhance margins and market competitiveness.

Earnings Release: Here's Why Analysts Cut Their Vale S.A. (BVMF:VALE3) Price Target To R$75.44

Apr 27

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

BOVESPA:VALE3 - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (BRL Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2027	227,034	43,019	30,333	58,661	16
12/31/2026	223,757	43,246	26,423	56,949	19
12/31/2025	216,581	43,302	21,989	48,141	21
12/31/2024	206,005	31,592	15,101	50,199	N/A
9/30/2024	211,109	48,251	24,981	56,702	N/A
6/30/2024	210,093	48,729	30,180	61,642	N/A
3/31/2024	206,116	38,710	34,273	64,753	N/A
12/31/2023	208,066	39,940	36,459	65,905	N/A
9/30/2023	206,296	47,517	23,554	52,283	N/A
6/30/2023	206,414	56,939	27,332	55,025	N/A
3/31/2023	213,630	72,587	35,308	63,400	N/A
12/31/2022	226,508	86,106	30,017	58,201	N/A
9/30/2022	237,095	96,960	33,231	58,698	N/A
6/30/2022	249,433	101,489	60,754	89,169	N/A
3/31/2022	281,451	124,569	84,349	112,232	N/A
12/31/2021	293,524	133,712	109,465	136,766	N/A
9/30/2021	296,709	116,999	133,655	161,108	N/A
6/30/2021	290,197	104,799	116,684	139,427	N/A
3/31/2021	243,639	66,787	83,680	105,783	N/A
12/31/2020	206,098	35,588	53,488	75,208	N/A
9/30/2020	170,610	15,480	30,626	51,578	N/A
6/30/2020	153,368	6,407	22,418	42,221	N/A
3/31/2020	148,939	734	29,287	46,755	N/A
12/31/2019	144,635	3,959	33,460	47,282	N/A
9/30/2019	145,076	14,222	33,948	48,403	N/A
6/30/2019	142,274	13,433	33,943	47,588	N/A
3/31/2019	137,503	14,162	35,771	49,090	N/A
12/31/2018	134,483	25,967	33,900	47,799	N/A
9/30/2018	126,855	15,618	N/A	47,442	N/A
6/30/2018	117,593	17,354	N/A	39,562	N/A
3/31/2018	109,722	17,467	N/A	37,582	N/A
12/31/2017	108,532	20,235	N/A	39,154	N/A
9/30/2017	109,357	21,669	N/A	36,743	N/A
6/30/2017	102,588	16,136	N/A	36,988	N/A
3/31/2017	100,801	19,335	N/A	33,297	N/A
12/31/2016	94,633	17,470	N/A	21,635	N/A
9/30/2016	79,220	-20,596	N/A	18,235	N/A
6/30/2016	80,739	-29,215	N/A	16,376	N/A
3/31/2016	80,604	-27,729	N/A	11,999	N/A
12/31/2015	78,057	-43,553	N/A	15,719	N/A
9/30/2015	85,970	-15,819	N/A	13,380	N/A
6/30/2015	83,250	-12,537	N/A	14,090	N/A
3/31/2015	83,893	-14,493	N/A	20,284	N/A
12/31/2014	82,619	3,139	N/A	27,792	N/A
9/30/2014	95,087	-9,269	N/A	28,999	N/A
6/30/2014	102,648	2,090	N/A	32,716	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: VALE3's forecast earnings growth (6.2% per year) is below the savings rate (10.8%).

Earnings vs Market: VALE3's earnings (6.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the BR market (13.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: VALE3's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: VALE3's revenue (2.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the BR market (6.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: VALE3's revenue (2.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: VALE3's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (17.8%).

Discover growth companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/04/25 01:22
End of Day Share Price	2025/04/24 00:00
Earnings	2024/12/31
Annual Earnings	2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Vale S.A. is covered by 59 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Alexander Hacking	Auerbach Grayson
Rodrigo Ferraz	Banco Brascan S.A.
Ishan Majumdar	Baptista Research

Vale Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11%

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 19%

Vale S.A. Updates Production Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2024, 2025, 2026, 2030 and 2035

Vale S.A. Announces Power Resumption in Onça Puma

Vale S.A. Reports Interruption of Operations at the on A Puma Nickel Plant

Earnings Release: Here's Why Analysts Cut Their Vale S.A. (BVMF:VALE3) Price Target To R$75.44

Recent updates

Here's Why Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11%

Vale S.A. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 24, 2025

Global Infrastructure Management, LLC entered into an agreement to acquire 70% stake in Aliança Geração de Energia S.A. from Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) for $1 billion.

Why We're Not Concerned About Vale S.A.'s (BVMF:VALE3) Share Price

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 19%

Vale S.A. Approves Dividend, Payable on March 14, 2025

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Full year 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

An undisclosed buyer acquired 4.05% stake in Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) from Cosan S.A. (BOVESPA:CSAN3) for BRL 9 billion.

Vale S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 30, 2025

Vale S.A. to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Feb 19, 2025

Vale S.A. Updates Production Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2024, 2025, 2026, 2030 and 2035

Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) acquired 15% stake in Minas-Rio of Vale S.A. from Anglo American plc (LSE:AAL).

Vale S.A. Approves New Composition of Audit and Risks Committee

Iron Ore Strategy And Cost Efficiency To Drive Growth Amidst Legal And Market Challenges

Vale S.A. Announces Power Resumption in Onça Puma

Vale S.A. Announces Executives Changes

Cosan Reportedly Mulls Selling Vale Stake on Leverage Woes

Vale S.A. Reports Interruption of Operations at the on A Puma Nickel Plant

Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise

Vale S.A. Announces Appointment of Gustavo Pimenta as CEO

Slowing Rates Of Return At Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Leave Little Room For Excitement

Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) completed the acquisition of remaining 45% stake in Aliança Geração de Energia S.A. from Cemig Geração e Transmissão S.A.

Dividend of R$2.09 announced

Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations

Is Vale (BVMF:VALE3) A Risky Investment?

Vale S.A. and BHP Brasil Enter into an Agreement on Claims in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands

Vale S.A. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Jul 25, 2024

Now 20% overvalued after recent price rise

Vale S.A.'s (BVMF:VALE3) Business And Shares Still Trailing The Market

Manara Minerals Investment Company completed the acquisition of 10% stake in Energy Transition Metals business of Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3).

Earnings Release: Here's Why Analysts Cut Their Vale S.A. (BVMF:VALE3) Price Target To R$75.44

Now 20% overvalued

First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: R$1.93 (vs R$2.14 in 1Q 2023)

Vale S. A Provides Production Guidance for the Year 2024

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13%

Now 22% overvalued

Vale S.A. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 24, 2024

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) agreed to acquire remaining 45% stake in Aliança Geração de Energia S.A. from Cemig Geração e Transmissão S.A. for BRL 2.7 billion.

Upcoming dividend of R$2.74 per share

Dividend of R$2.74 announced

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Vale S.A. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Jan 30, 2024

Vale S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 26, 2024

Vale S. A Provides Production Guidance for the Year 2023, 2024, 2026 and 2030+

Vale Sa Announces English Court of Appeal Dismisses Application for Permission to Appeal Against the Court's Jurisdiction

Upcoming dividend of R$2.33 per share at 6.9% yield

Vale S.A. Announces Approval of Distribution, Scheduled to Be Paid December 1, 2023

Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.66 (vs US$0.95 in 3Q 2022)

Vale S.A. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Oct 26, 2023

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14%

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 18%

Upcoming dividend of R$1.92 per share at 7.5% yield

New minor risk - Profit margin trend

Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Engine No. 1 LP entered into binding agreement to acquire 3% stake in Energy Transition Metals business of Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3) for an enterprise value of $26 billion.

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14%

Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden) (SASE:1211) and an undisclosed public investment firm entered into binding agreement to acquire 10% stake in Energy Transition Metals business of Vale S.A. (BOVESPA:VALE3).

Vale Reportedly Close to Deal to Divest 10% of Base Metals Business

Vale S.A. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Jul 27, 2023

Vale S.A. Appoints Manuel Lino Silva De Sousa Oliveira as Lead Independent Director

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 19%

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity