Vale Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 0/6
Vale's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -33.1%, while the Metals and Mining industry saw earnings declining at 22.9% annually. Revenues have been declining at an average rate of 6.8% per year. Vale's return on equity is 7.1%, and it has net margins of 7.3%.
Key information
-33.14%
Earnings growth rate
-29.45%
EPS growth rate
| Metals and Mining Industry Growth | 33.93% |
| Revenue growth rate | -6.83% |
| Return on equity | 7.06% |
| Net Margin | 7.26% |
| Next Earnings Update | 30 Jul 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 05
VALE3: Base Metals Mix And Copper Strength Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have nudged the R$ fair value estimate for Vale higher to R$104.54 from R$101.20. The updated estimate reflects a series of recent price target increases, even as analysts factor in a slightly higher discount rate, more conservative revenue growth, modestly lower profit margins and a higher future P/E assumption.
Narrative Update • Apr 20
VALE3: Base Metals Strength And Iron Ore Risks Will Shape Future Returns
Analysts have slightly lifted the R$ fair value estimate for Vale, reflecting broadly higher Street price targets. These emphasize stronger base metals contributions, a higher assumed future P/E and more cautious views on revenue growth and profit margins.Narrative Update • Apr 05
VALE3: Copper Strength And Base Metals Mix Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have slightly reduced the fair value estimate for Vale. The updated price target of R$101.20 reflects a higher discount rate and more conservative revenue growth assumptions, partly offset by a marginally stronger profit margin outlook and a lower future P/E.Narrative Update • Mar 22
VALE3: Base Metals And Copper Mix Will Drive Future Returns
Narrative Update on Vale The analyst price target for Vale edges slightly lower in the model, reflecting a marginal trim to fair value to R$88.67. Analysts see the shares more fully reflecting iron ore and base metals assumptions after a series of target increases and recent rating downgrades that emphasize valuation and oversupply risks.Narrative Update • Mar 08
VALE3: Base Metals And Copper Shift Will Support Future Returns
Our analyst price target for Vale has been revised higher to R$88.95 from R$80.25, reflecting Street research that has generally nudged targets up on stronger base metals contributions and copper demand, even as analysts flag iron ore price softness, steel demand headwinds, and potential oversupply risks. Analyst Commentary Street research on Vale has turned more mixed recently, with several price target increases sitting alongside fresh rating downgrades.Narrative Update • Feb 22
VALE3: Copper And Base Metals Mix Will Drive Future Upside Potential
The updated analyst price target for Vale implies fair value rising from about R$86.67 to roughly R$102.54. Analysts point to stronger margin assumptions, a lower discount rate and a lower future P/E, supported by recent research that highlights higher copper exposure even as iron ore faces potential oversupply risk.Analysis Article • Feb 19
There May Be Reason For Hope In Vale's (BVMF:VALE3) Disappointing Earnings
Vale S.A.'s ( BVMF:VALE3 ) earnings announcement last week didn't impress shareholders. While the headline numbers were...
Narrative Update • Feb 07
VALE3: Iron Ore Oversupply And Execution Risks Will Pressure Future Earnings
Our updated analyst price target for Vale edges slightly lower by about $0.65, as analysts balance more constructive assumptions on revenue growth with modestly softer profit margin expectations and a small adjustment in the assumed P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vale has been mixed, with some firms lifting price targets and others sounding more cautious.Analysis Article • Jan 30
Returns At Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Appear To Be Weighed Down
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. In a perfect...Narrative Update • Jan 24
VALE3: Iron Ore Oversupply Risk Will Pressure Earnings Power And Sentiment
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Vale from $54.24 to $70.04, reflecting mixed views on iron ore oversupply risk and cost discipline, along with generally higher Street price targets clustered around $12 to $15.50. Analyst Commentary Street research around Vale highlights a split view, with some firms raising price targets on the back of modeling updates and cost control, while bearish analysts flag iron ore market risks and temper expectations for upside.Narrative Update • Jan 09
VALE3: Base And Precious Metals Exposure Will Drive Future Upside Potential
The updated analyst price target for Vale implies a fair value move from about $84 to $87, as analysts balance oversupply risks in iron ore with improving views on base and precious metals exposure, alongside a revised future P/E assumption of 13.2x. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vale reflects a split view, with some caution around iron ore oversupply risk and a cluster of more constructive opinions tied to base and precious metals exposure, as well as updated models after recent company results.Narrative Update • Dec 25
VALE3: Base Metals Expansion And Cost Discipline Will Drive Balanced Future Returns
Vale's analyst price target has been nudged higher, with fair value estimates rising by about $3.50 per share as analysts factor in slightly stronger long term revenue growth, modestly better margins, and a richer future earnings multiple following a series of recent target hikes from major banks. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vale reflects a generally constructive stance, with a clear tilt toward incremental upgrades and higher price targets as analysts recalibrate models following the latest quarterly update.Narrative Update • Dec 11
VALE3: Base Metals And Copper Expansion Will Drive Balanced Future Return Potential
The analyst price target for Vale has been nudged higher to about $14.50 per share from roughly $14 previously, as analysts cite updated post Q3 models, improving base metals performance, and constructive views on copper driven by tight supply and stronger precious metal prices. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates reflect a broadly constructive tone on Vale, with multiple firms raising price targets as they refresh models following the Q3 report and factor in stronger trends in base and precious metals.Narrative Update • Nov 27
VALE3: Base Metals Segment Performance Will Drive 2026 Profitability Upside
Vale’s analyst price target has been raised from $71.08 to $75.14. Analysts cite constructive views following the company's Q3 report, improved Base Metals segment performance, and ongoing cost control as key reasons for the increased valuation.Narrative Update • Nov 12
VALE3: Revenue Momentum And Base Metals Performance Will Offset Market Caution
Analysts have modestly increased their price target for Vale, raising it by $0.76. This adjustment reflects stronger revenue growth forecasts and improved performance in the Base Metals segment.Analysis Article • Nov 08
Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Narrative Update • Oct 29
Higher Precious Metal Prices Will Drive Earnings Thanks To Copper Supply Disruptions
Vale's analyst price target has been modestly increased, rising from $13.50 to $14. Analysts cite improved profit margins and supportive trends in precious and base metal markets as contributing factors.Analysis Article • Oct 21
Return Trends At Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Aren't Appealing
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...Narrative Update • Oct 14
Bacaba And Voisey's Bay Projects Will Fuel Global Decarbonization Efforts
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Vale from approximately $67.35 to $70.15. This change reflects tempered optimism due to the company's ongoing cost-cutting, gradual copper expansion, and broadly cautious sentiment on iron ore market fundamentals.Analysis Article • Oct 02
Some Confidence Is Lacking In Vale S.A.'s (BVMF:VALE3) P/E
It's not a stretch to say that Vale S.A.'s ( BVMF:VALE3 ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.6x right now seems...Narrative Update • Sep 27
Bacaba And Voisey's Bay Projects Will Fuel Global Decarbonization Efforts
Vale’s consensus price target was modestly raised to R$67.35 as bullish analysts cite resilient iron ore prices and cost reductions, though sentiment is tempered by concerns over China demand, macro headwinds, and regulatory risks. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts note improved conviction in iron ore price resilience and potential for recovery in global steel demand.Narrative Update • Sep 05
Bacaba And Voisey's Bay Projects Will Fuel Global Decarbonization Efforts
Vale’s fair value estimate saw a negligible reduction, as consensus revenue growth and discount rate projections remained largely unchanged, resulting in only a minor decrease in the analyst price target from R$67.03 to R$66.11. What's in the News Vale and BHP offered $1.4B to settle a UK class action lawsuit related to the Mariana dam disaster, but claimants’ lawyers are demanding about $3B (Financial Times).Analysis Article • Aug 07
Some May Be Optimistic About Vale's (BVMF:VALE3) Earnings
BOVESPA:VALE3 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Vale's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...Analysis Article • Aug 01
Industry Analysts Just Made A Substantial Upgrade To Their Vale S.A. (BVMF:VALE3) Revenue Forecasts
Vale S.A. ( BVMF:VALE3 ) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades...Analysis Article • Jul 26
Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Jun 20
There Is A Reason Vale S.A.'s (BVMF:VALE3) Price Is Undemanding
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7x Vale S.A. ( BVMF:VALE3 ) may be sending bullish signals at the moment...Analysis Article • Jun 02
Vale (BVMF:VALE3) Has Some Way To Go To Become A Multi-Bagger
There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Typically, we'll want to notice a...
New Narrative • Nov 07
Iron Ore Strategy And Cost Efficiency To Drive Growth Amidst Legal And Market Challenges
Strategic focus on cost efficiency and premium iron ore could enhance margins and market competitiveness.Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Vale makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 214,864 | 15,603 | 3,256 | -34 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 213,595 | 13,814 | 3,566 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 213,320 | 30,185 | 5,625 | 3,918 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 209,597 | 28,954 | 5,760 | 4,307 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 211,525 | 31,465 | 4,069 | 719 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 206,005 | 31,592 | 3,397 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 211,109 | 48,251 | 6,581 | 6,424 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 210,093 | 48,729 | 3,963 | 2,059 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 206,116 | 38,710 | 4,442 | 2,875 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 208,066 | 39,940 | 2,758 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 206,296 | 47,517 | 3,466 | 1,147 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 206,414 | 56,939 | 4,991 | 3,574 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 213,630 | 72,587 | 5,756 | 4,134 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 226,508 | 86,106 | 5,124 | 3,411 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 237,095 | 96,960 | 7,888 | 5,228 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 249,433 | 101,489 | 5,596 | 3,066 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 281,451 | 124,569 | 5,342 | 2,423 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 293,524 | 133,712 | 6,068 | 2,964 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 296,709 | 116,999 | 3,572 | 675 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 290,197 | 104,799 | 6,459 | 2,512 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 243,639 | 66,787 | 6,693 | 2,263 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 206,098 | 35,588 | 7,046 | 2,151 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 170,610 | 15,480 | 7,210 | 2,127 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 153,368 | 6,407 | 7,159 | 2,059 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 148,939 | 734 | 6,958 | 1,925 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 144,635 | 3,959 | 6,431 | 1,644 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 145,076 | 14,222 | 5,405 | 1,591 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 142,274 | 13,433 | 4,537 | 1,442 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 137,503 | 14,162 | 3,479 | 1,422 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 134,483 | 25,967 | 2,901 | 1,376 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 126,855 | 15,618 | 2,989 | 1,237 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 117,593 | 17,354 | 2,887 | 1,176 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 109,722 | 17,467 | 2,917 | 1,103 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 108,532 | 20,235 | 3,014 | 1,086 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 109,357 | 21,669 | 3,010 | 1,120 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 102,588 | 16,136 | 3,157 | 1,093 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 100,801 | 19,335 | 3,278 | 1,094 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 94,633 | 17,470 | 3,325 | 1,098 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 79,220 | -20,596 | 3,597 | 909 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 80,739 | -29,215 | 4,170 | 1,084 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 80,604 | -27,729 | 4,622 | 1,192 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 78,057 | -43,553 | 5,136 | 1,326 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 85,970 | -15,819 | 5,523 | 1,740 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 83,250 | -12,537 | 5,394 | 1,749 |
Quality Earnings: VALE3 has a large one-off loss of R$26.6B impacting its last 12 months of financial results to 31st March, 2026.
Growing Profit Margin: VALE3's current net profit margins (7.3%) are lower than last year (14.9%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: VALE3's earnings have declined by 33.1% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: VALE3's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: VALE3 had negative earnings growth (-50.4%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Metals and Mining industry average (-45.5%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: VALE3's Return on Equity (7.1%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 02:24 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Vale S.A. is covered by 41 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Leonardo Correa | Barclays |
| Amos Fletcher | Barclays |
| Mary Cleia da Silva | BB Banco de Investimento S.A. |