Some May Be Optimistic About Vale's (BVMF:VALE3) Earnings

Shareholders appeared unconcerned with Vale S.A.'s (BVMF:VALE3) lackluster earnings report last week. We think that the softer headline numbers might be getting counterbalanced by some positive underlying factors.

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The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

For anyone who wants to understand Vale's profit beyond the statutory numbers, it's important to note that during the last twelve months statutory profit was reduced by R$9.4b due to unusual items. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Vale to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Vale's Profit Performance

Because unusual items detracted from Vale's earnings over the last year, you could argue that we can expect an improved result in the current quarter. Based on this observation, we consider it likely that Vale's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! Unfortunately, though, its earnings per share actually fell back over the last year. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 3 warning signs with Vale, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Vale's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.