Update shared on27 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.87%Vale’s consensus price target was modestly raised to R$67.35 as bullish analysts cite resilient iron ore prices and cost reductions, though sentiment is tempered by concerns over China demand, macro headwinds, and regulatory risks.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts note improved conviction in iron ore price resilience and potential for recovery in global steel demand.
- Bearish analysts cite weaker-than-expected near-term demand from China and increased concerns about the macroeconomic outlook.
- JPMorgan’s downward revision highlights softer realized prices and more cautious volume guidance from management.
- Bullish analysts emphasize Vale's ongoing cost-reduction efforts and attractive valuation relative to peers.
- Concerns regarding regulatory risks and potential dividend policy changes continue to weigh on sentiment.
What's in the News
- Vale and BHP offered about $1.4 billion to settle a UK class action lawsuit over the Mariana dam disaster, with $800 million earmarked for victim compensation and $600 million for legal fees; the claimants’ representatives are seeking about $3 billion (Financial Times).
- Vale finalized a joint venture with Global Infrastructure Partners, receiving around $1 billion in cash and retaining a 30% stake in Aliança Energia, consolidating a renewable-focused energy portfolio and securing long-term, US dollar–denominated energy supply (Key Developments).
- The company received an operating license for the Serra Sul +20 Mtpy Project, enabling a 20 million ton annual iron ore capacity increase at the S11D complex, with commissioning expected in H2 2026 and 77% of physical progress already achieved (Key Developments).
- Vale was unable to reach a consensus with Brazilian transport authorities regarding the renegotiation of railway concession contracts for key routes, though existing contracts have been extended until 2057, and Vale continues to comply with all obligations (Key Developments).
- Brazil's Federal Attorney General's Office filed a BRL 2 billion lawsuit against Vale over alleged irregular mining at the Tamandua Mine; Vale has not yet been formally notified and will respond as required (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Vale
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from R$66.11 to R$67.35.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Vale has significantly fallen from 1.3% per annum to 0.7% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for Vale has risen slightly from 18.50% to 19.03%.
Disclaimer
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