Earnings Miss: Here's What BB Seguridade Participações S.A. (BVMF:BBSE3) Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

It's shaping up to be a tough period for BB Seguridade Participações S.A. (BVMF:BBSE3), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 5.7% short of analyst estimates at R$2.3b, and statutory earnings of R$1.01 per share missed forecasts by 5.0%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from BB Seguridade Participações' eleven analysts is for revenues of R$10.4b in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 3.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be R$4.45, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$10.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$4.52 in 2025. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a small increase to to revenue forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for BB Seguridade Participações

Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of R$42.58, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BB Seguridade Participações at R$48.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at R$33.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that BB Seguridade Participações' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than BB Seguridade Participações.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$42.58, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on BB Seguridade Participações. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for BB Seguridade Participações going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for BB Seguridade Participações (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.