Boa Safra Sementes S.A. Just Missed Earnings And Its Revenue Numbers Were Weaker Than Expected

Last week, you might have seen that Boa Safra Sementes S.A. (BVMF:SOJA3) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.8% to R$13.58 in the past week. Revenues were R$88m, 50% shy of what the analysts were expecting, although statutory earnings of R$2.57 per share were roughly in line with what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Boa Safra Sementes

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Boa Safra Sementes from six analysts is for revenues of R$2.48b in 2024. If met, it would imply a major 25% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 31% to R$1.54 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$2.64b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$2.11 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a large cut to earnings per share numbers.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of R$21.23, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Boa Safra Sementes' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Boa Safra Sementes at R$25.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at R$18.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Boa Safra Sementes' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Boa Safra Sementes' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 56% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 33% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Boa Safra Sementes is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Boa Safra Sementes. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$21.23, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Boa Safra Sementes going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Boa Safra Sementes (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.