JBS S.A. Just Missed Earnings With A Surprise Loss - Here Are Analysts Latest Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that JBS S.A. (BVMF:JBSS3) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.6% to R$21.90 in the past week. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of R$0.48 per share on revenues of R$364b, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for JBS

Taking into account the latest results, JBS' ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be R$363.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. JBS is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of R$2.07 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of R$366.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$2.37 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at R$30.60, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values JBS at R$38.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at R$23.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.07% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - JBS is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$30.60, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on JBS. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple JBS analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that JBS is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.