Cogna Educação S.A. (BVMF:COGN3) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

There's been a notable change in appetite for Cogna Educação S.A. (BVMF:COGN3) shares in the week since its yearly report, with the stock down 17% to R$1.85. The results were positive, with revenue coming in at R$5.1b, beating analyst expectations by 2.5%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Cogna Educação after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Cogna Educação

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Cogna Educação from eleven analysts is for revenues of R$5.64b in 2023 which, if met, would be a solid 11% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$5.53b and losses of R$0.14 per share in 2023. Overall, while the analysts have reconfirmed their revenue estimates, the consensus now no longer provides an EPS estimate, suggesting that the market believes revenue is more important after these latest results.

We'd also point out that thatthe analysts have made no major changes to their price target of R$2.55. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Cogna Educação analyst has a price target of R$3.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at R$2.30. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. For example, we noticed that Cogna Educação's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 11% growth to the end of 2023 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 5.1% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 7.7% annually. Not only are Cogna Educação's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their revenue estimates for next year, suggesting that the business is performing in line with expectations. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

We have estimates for Cogna Educação from its eleven analysts out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Cogna Educação's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.