Dimed S.A. Distribuidora de Medicamentos Just Missed Earnings And Its Revenue Numbers Were Weaker Than Expected

Dimed S.A. Distribuidora de Medicamentos (BVMF:PNVL3) came out with its third-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at R$1.2b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at R$0.62 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Dimed Distribuidora de Medicamentos

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Dimed Distribuidora de Medicamentos' five analysts is for revenues of R$5.70b in 2025. This reflects a decent 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 61% to R$1.12. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of R$5.65b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$1.21 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at R$13.44, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Dimed Distribuidora de Medicamentos at R$15.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at R$11.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Dimed Distribuidora de Medicamentos is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Dimed Distribuidora de Medicamentos'historical trends, as the 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 13% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that Dimed Distribuidora de Medicamentos is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Dimed Distribuidora de Medicamentos analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Dimed Distribuidora de Medicamentos' balance sheet, and whether we think Dimed Distribuidora de Medicamentos is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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