Iochpe-Maxion S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, Iochpe-Maxion S.A. (BVMF:MYPK3) last week released its latest full-year, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with R$15b revenue coming in 3.8% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of R$0.20 missed the mark badly, arriving some 72% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Iochpe-Maxion

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Iochpe-Maxion's seven analysts is for revenues of R$16.6b in 2024. This would reflect a meaningful 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 1,237% to R$2.74. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of R$16.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$2.25 in 2024. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a sizeable expansion in earnings per share in particular.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of R$15.76, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Iochpe-Maxion at R$20.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at R$13.80. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Iochpe-Maxion shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Iochpe-Maxion's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Iochpe-Maxion's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 11% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Iochpe-Maxion is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Iochpe-Maxion following these results. They also upgraded their revenue forecasts, although the latest estimates suggest that Iochpe-Maxion will grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Iochpe-Maxion going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Iochpe-Maxion (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.