What KMM AD's (BUL:KMM) 90% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

KMM AD (BUL:KMM) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 90% share price jump in the last month. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.

Since its price has surged higher, given close to half the companies in Bulgaria have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 13x, you may consider KMM AD as a stock to avoid entirely with its 22.2x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at KMM AD over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for KMM AD

Although there are no analyst estimates available for KMM AD, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like KMM AD's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 69%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 44% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 17% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that KMM AD is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From KMM AD's P/E?

KMM AD's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that KMM AD currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for KMM AD you should be aware of, and 2 of them can't be ignored.

You might be able to find a better investment than KMM AD. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.