Does Favorable TK2d Study Data Signal a New Era for UCB's Rare Disease Innovation (ENXTBR:UCB)?

• On October 13, 2025, UCB announced that Neurology had published favorable results from a multicenter retrospective chart review study of its investigational pyrimidine nucleoside and/or nucleotide therapy in patients with thymidine kinase 2 deficiency (TK2d), showing that 29% (6 out of 21) of treated individuals experienced reduced need for ventilatory support and most adverse events were mild.
• An interesting aspect of the study is the potential clinical impact on this rare neuromuscular disorder, as well as the challenge of interpreting results due to small patient numbers and variability in data collection.
• We'll look at how these newly published study results for TK2d therapy may shape UCB's investment narrative, especially around innovation in rare diseases.

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UCB Investment Narrative Recap

UCB’s long-term story relies on sustained leadership in neurology and immunology by advancing innovative therapies, such as BIMZELX, amid challenging pricing and biosimilar risks. The favorable TK2d data adds to UCB’s reputation for rare disease innovation, but given small patient numbers and the investigational status, it is unlikely to materially impact short-term performance drivers or mitigate the present risk of pricing erosion in core assets.

One recent announcement with more immediate relevance is the three-year data on BIMZELX in hidradenitis suppurativa, underscoring the importance of expanding indications for cornerstone assets. Progress with BIMZELX in broader patient populations remains a key short-term catalyst, while market pressures on pricing and margins persist.

By contrast, investors should be mindful that current optimism may be tempered if pricing pressure in the US market accelerates beyond expectations, especially if...

Read the full narrative on UCB (it's free!)

UCB's narrative projects €9.4 billion in revenue and €2.1 billion in earnings by 2028. This requires 11.3% yearly revenue growth and a €0.8 billion earnings increase from €1.3 billion today.

Uncover how UCB's forecasts yield a €240.28 fair value, a 5% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Six members of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimate UCB’s fair value between €173 and €506. While many focus on future innovation and expanding indications, broad consensus remains elusive given the significant risk that further US market pricing pressure could weigh on margins and growth. Consider exploring these diverse valuation perspectives to inform your outlook.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on UCB - why the stock might be worth as much as 100% more than the current price!

Build Your Own UCB Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your UCB research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free UCB research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate UCB's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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