Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On argenx SE's (EBR:ARGX) Full-Year Report

Shareholders might have noticed that argenx SE (EBR:ARGX) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.5% to €359 in the past week. Revenue of US$1.3b came in 3.3% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of US$5.26, a 11% miss. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for argenx

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from argenx's 29 analysts is for revenues of US$1.82b in 2024. This would reflect a substantial 43% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 64% to US$1.80. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.76b and losses of US$1.88 per share in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and losses per share.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of €433, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on argenx, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €632 and the most bearish at €165 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that argenx's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 43% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 54% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 20% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while argenx's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on argenx. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple argenx analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with argenx (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.