KBC Group NV (EBR:KBC) Just Released Its Yearly Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

It's been a good week for KBC Group NV (EBR:KBC) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 2.1% to €60.62. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of €8.04 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of €11b came in 2.3% ahead of analyst predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for KBC Group

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 16 analysts covering KBC Group is for revenues of €11.0b in 2024. This implies a noticeable 2.5% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 9.1% to €7.45 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €11.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of €7.35 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €69.50. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on KBC Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €82.00 and the most bearish at €58.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.5% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 7.9% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.5% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that KBC Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that KBC Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple KBC Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for KBC Group (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.