Investors Aren't Buying AGL Energy Limited's (ASX:AGL) Revenues

When you see that almost half of the companies in the Integrated Utilities industry in Australia have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") above 1.6x, AGL Energy Limited (ASX:AGL) looks to be giving off some buy signals with its 0.6x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

Check out our latest analysis for AGL Energy

What Does AGL Energy's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

With revenue that's retreating more than the industry's average of late, AGL Energy has been very sluggish. Perhaps the market isn't expecting future revenue performance to improve, which has kept the P/S suppressed. So while you could say the stock is cheap, investors will be looking for improvement before they see it as good value. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

Keen to find out how analysts think AGL Energy's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as low as AGL Energy's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 18% decrease to the company's top line. This has soured the latest three-year period, which nevertheless managed to deliver a decent 11% overall rise in revenue. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing revenue over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 1.3% per annum during the coming three years according to the ten analysts following the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 4.7% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

With this information, we can see why AGL Energy is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.

The Key Takeaway

Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of AGL Energy's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior revenue outlook is contributing to its low P/S. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for AGL Energy you should know about.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.