What Is Qantas Airways Limited's (ASX:QAN) Share Price Doing?

Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN), is not the largest company out there, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the ASX over the last few months, increasing to AU$6.79 at one point, and dropping to the lows of AU$6.00. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Qantas Airways' current trading price of AU$6.58 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Qantas Airways’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

See our latest analysis for Qantas Airways

What Is Qantas Airways Worth?

According to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average, the stock currently looks expensive. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Qantas Airways’s ratio of 18.95x is above its peer average of 12.62x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Airlines industry. If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Given that Qantas Airways’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What kind of growth will Qantas Airways generate?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Qantas Airways' earnings over the next few years are expected to double, indicating a very optimistic future ahead. This should lead to stronger cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in QAN’s positive outlook, with shares trading above industry price multiples. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe QAN should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on QAN for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for QAN, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

If you'd like to know more about Qantas Airways as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Qantas Airways you should be aware of.

If you are no longer interested in Qantas Airways, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.