Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN) After Its Half-Yearly Results

There's been a notable change in appetite for Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN) shares in the week since its half-year report, with the stock down 11% to AU$5.21. Qantas Airways reported AU$11b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.52 beat expectations, being 4.5% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Qantas Airways after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Qantas Airways

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Qantas Airways from 15 analysts is for revenues of AU$21.8b in 2024. If met, it would imply an okay 3.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 13% to AU$0.84 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$21.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.85 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of AU$7.14, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Qantas Airways analyst has a price target of AU$9.30 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$5.60. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Qantas Airways' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 7.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.3% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.4% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Qantas Airways is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$7.14, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Qantas Airways analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Qantas Airways (1 doesn't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.