Earnings Miss: Qantas Airways Limited Missed EPS By 13% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Investors in Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.4% to close at AU$6.37 following the release of its yearly results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of AU$22b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 13% to hit AU$0.76 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Qantas Airways after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Qantas Airways

After the latest results, the 15 analysts covering Qantas Airways are now predicting revenues of AU$23.7b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a notable 8.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 29% to AU$1.02. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$22.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.98 in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of AU$7.55, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Qantas Airways analyst has a price target of AU$9.54 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$5.85. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 8.1% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 9.3% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that Qantas Airways is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Qantas Airways following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Qantas Airways going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Qantas Airways is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.