Is TPG Telecom Limited's (ASX:TPG) Recent Stock Performance Influenced By Its Financials In Any Way?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
July 25, 2021
ASX:TPG
Source: Shutterstock

TPG Telecom's (ASX:TPG) stock up by 6.2% over the past three months. As most would know, long-term fundamentals have a strong correlation with market price movements, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. Specifically, we decided to study TPG Telecom's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

View our latest analysis for TPG Telecom

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for TPG Telecom is:

6.2% = AU$734m ÷ AU$12b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2020).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each A$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made A$0.06 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of TPG Telecom's Earnings Growth And 6.2% ROE

When you first look at it, TPG Telecom's ROE doesn't look that attractive. Next, when compared to the average industry ROE of 10%, the company's ROE leaves us feeling even less enthusiastic. Despite this, surprisingly, TPG Telecom saw an exceptional 45% net income growth over the past five years. We reckon that there could be other factors at play here. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

As a next step, we compared TPG Telecom's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 11%.

past-earnings-growth
ASX:TPG Past Earnings Growth July 25th 2021

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if TPG Telecom is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is TPG Telecom Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

TPG Telecom has a really low three-year median payout ratio of 12%, meaning that it has the remaining 88% left over to reinvest into its business. This suggests that the management is reinvesting most of the profits to grow the business as evidenced by the growth seen by the company.

Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 77% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected increase in the payout ratio explains the expected decline in the company's ROE to 4.2%, over the same period.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that TPG Telecom has some positive attributes. With a high rate of reinvestment, albeit at a low ROE, the company has managed to see a considerable growth in its earnings. Having said that, on studying current analyst estimates, we were concerned to see that while the company has grown its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St is focused on providing unbiased, high-quality research coverage on every listed company in the world. Our research team consists of data scientists and multiple equity analysts with over two decades worth of financial markets experience between them.