Nuix Limited (ASX:NXL) Shares May Have Slumped 32% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely

Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Nuix Limited (ASX:NXL) share price has dived 32% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. The good news is that in the last year, the stock has shone bright like a diamond, gaining 177%.

Although its price has dipped substantially, given around half the companies in Australia's Software industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 3x, you may still consider Nuix as a stock to avoid entirely with its 6.5x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Nuix

How Has Nuix Performed Recently?

Nuix's revenue growth of late has been pretty similar to most other companies. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this modest revenue performance will accelerate. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Nuix.

How Is Nuix's Revenue Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Nuix would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 21% gain to the company's top line. As a result, it also grew revenue by 25% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been respectable for the company.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 15% per year during the coming three years according to the five analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 20% per annum growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this in consideration, we believe it doesn't make sense that Nuix's P/S is outpacing its industry peers. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Nuix's P/S?

A significant share price dive has done very little to deflate Nuix's very lofty P/S. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Despite analysts forecasting some poorer-than-industry revenue growth figures for Nuix, this doesn't appear to be impacting the P/S in the slightest. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Nuix that you should be aware of.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.