Nuix Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of NXL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

NXL (A$6.1) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$7.06)

Is NXL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NXL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NXL (A$6.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$7.06)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NXL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NXL?

Key metric: As NXL is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for NXL. This is calculated by dividing NXL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is NXL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	9.1x
Sales	AU$220.62m
Market Cap	AU$2.02b

NXL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	32.4x
PEG Ratio	9.4x

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does NXL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for NXL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	7.4x
OCL Objective	14x	8.6%	AU$1.6b
IRE Iress	2.8x	1.9%	AU$1.7b
SDR SiteMinder	9.5x	18.8%	AU$1.8b
HSN Hansen Technologies	3.2x	5.5%	AU$1.1b
NXL Nuix	9.1x	15.7%	AU$2.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NXL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (9.1x) compared to the peer average (7.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does NXL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Software Industry?

16 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
ADA Adacel Technologies	0.6x	10.4%	US$18.36m
MOQ MOQ	0.3x	n/a	US$15.57m
DUB Dubber	0.5x	n/a	US$12.65m
GTI Gratifii	0.5x	32.4%	US$9.08m

16 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NXL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (9.1x) compared to the Australian Software industry average (3.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NXL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NXL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	9.1x
Fair PS Ratio	12.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NXL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (9.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NXL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	AU$6.10	AU$5.98 -2.0%	11.0%	AU$7.00	AU$5.31	n/a	4
Nov ’25	AU$7.55	AU$6.03 -20.1%	12.2%	AU$7.20	AU$5.31	n/a	4
Oct ’25	AU$6.46	AU$5.53 -14.4%	6.3%	AU$6.10	AU$5.20	n/a	4
Sep ’25	AU$4.76	AU$5.53 +16.2%	6.3%	AU$6.10	AU$5.20	n/a	4
Aug ’25	AU$3.40	AU$3.27 -3.9%	14.9%	AU$3.95	AU$2.85	n/a	3
Jul ’25	AU$3.00	AU$3.27 +8.9%	14.9%	AU$3.95	AU$2.85	n/a	3
Jun ’25	AU$3.10	AU$3.27 +5.4%	14.9%	AU$3.95	AU$2.85	n/a	3
May ’25	AU$2.03	AU$2.82 +39.1%	18.8%	AU$3.57	AU$2.40	n/a	3
Apr ’25	AU$2.23	AU$2.45 +9.9%	2.0%	AU$2.50	AU$2.40	n/a	2
Mar ’25	AU$2.00	AU$2.45 +22.5%	2.0%	AU$2.50	AU$2.40	n/a	2
Feb ’25	AU$1.54	AU$1.73 +12.0%	27.5%	AU$2.20	AU$1.25	n/a	2
Jan ’25	AU$1.90	AU$1.73 -9.0%	27.5%	AU$2.20	AU$1.25	n/a	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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