Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) Is Posting Promising Earnings But The Good News Doesn’t Stop There

Wesfarmers Limited (ASX:WES) announced a healthy earnings result recently, and the market rewarded it with a strong uplift in the stock price. According to our analysis of the report, the strong headline profit numbers are supported by strong earnings fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for Wesfarmers

Examining Cashflow Against Wesfarmers' Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to December 2023, Wesfarmers had an accrual ratio of -0.12. Therefore, its statutory earnings were quite a lot less than its free cashflow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of AU$3.9b during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of AU$2.51b. Wesfarmers shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Wesfarmers' Profit Performance

Wesfarmers' accrual ratio is solid, and indicates strong free cash flow, as we discussed, above. Based on this observation, we consider it likely that Wesfarmers' statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! And the EPS is up 33% annually, over the last three years. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 2 warning signs with Wesfarmers, and understanding these bad boys should be part of your investment process.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Wesfarmers' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.