Stock Analysis

National Storage REIT (ASX:NSR) jumps 4.6% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind five-year shareholder returns

ASX:NSR
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Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. To wit, the National Storage REIT share price has climbed 64% in five years, easily topping the market return of 17% (ignoring dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 3.2% , including dividends .

The past week has proven to be lucrative for National Storage REIT investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.

View our latest analysis for National Storage REIT

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over half a decade, National Storage REIT managed to grow its earnings per share at 55% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 10% over the same period. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock. Having said that, the market is still optimistic, given the P/E ratio of 79.41.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
ASX:NSR Earnings Per Share Growth February 24th 2023

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on National Storage REIT's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, National Storage REIT's TSR for the last 5 years was 109%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

National Storage REIT shareholders are up 3.2% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 16% per year for five years. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with National Storage REIT , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.