ASX:GMG

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Goodman Group is an integrated property group with operations throughout Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the United Kingdom, North America and Brazil.

Rewards

Trading at 19.3% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 7.91% per year

Earnings grew by 48.2% over the past year

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for GMG from our risk checks.


Snowflake Analysis

Solid track record and fair value.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Goodman Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: GMG has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

0%

GMG

1.1%

AU REITs

2.0%

AU Market


1 Year Return

28.9%

GMG

13.8%

AU REITs

18.2%

AU Market

Return vs Industry: GMG exceeded the Australian REITs industry which returned 13.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GMG exceeded the Australian Market which returned 18.2% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

GMGIndustryMarket
7 Day0%1.1%2.0%
30 Day-1.3%-0.01%-0.7%
90 Day3.6%1.3%0.7%
1 Year31.9%28.9%19.5%13.8%24.1%18.2%
3 Year123.2%104.3%46.4%25.2%36.0%17.3%
5 Year188.7%145.9%94.4%50.7%64.1%27.1%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Goodman Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Goodman Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

19.3%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: GMG (A$14.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$17.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GMG is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: GMG is good value based on its PE Ratio (15.8x) compared to the REITs industry average (15.9x).

PE vs Market: GMG is good value based on its PE Ratio (15.8x) compared to the Australian market (18.4x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: GMG is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (2x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: GMG is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (2.5x) compared to the AU REITs industry average (1.2x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Goodman Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

7.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GMG's forecast earnings growth (7.9% per year) is above the savings rate (1.1%).

Earnings vs Market: GMG's earnings (7.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (9.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GMG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: GMG's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GMG's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-6% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GMG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.9%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Goodman Group performed over the past 5 years?

5.3%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GMG has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: GMG's current net profit margins (57.1%) are higher than last year (44%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GMG's earnings have grown by 5.3% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GMG's earnings growth over the past year (48.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (5.3% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: GMG earnings growth over the past year (48.2%) exceeded the REITs industry -16.4%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: GMG's Return on Equity (15.5%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Goodman Group's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)


Financial Position Analysis


Debt to Equity History and Analysis


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: GMG has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: GMG's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.8x debt).


Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: GMG's level of assets compared to its equity is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if GMG has a sufficient allowance for bad loans.

Low Risk Liabilities: GMG reports no customer deposits, loans are made up entirely of externally borrowed funds.

Loan Level: Insufficient data to determine if GMG has an acceptable proportion of non-loan assets held.

Low Risk Deposits: GMG has advanced significantly more loans than the customer deposits it holds.

Level of Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if GMG has an appropriate level of bad loans.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Goodman Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

2.11%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company2.1%marketbottom25%2.4%markettop25%5.5%industryaverage4.4%forecastin3Years2.3%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: GMG's dividend (2.11%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (2.44%).

High Dividend: GMG's dividend (2.11%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (5.54%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: GMG's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: GMG's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (63.9%), GMG's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: GMG's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be thoroughly covered by earnings (0.03% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Goodman Group's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

11.4yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Greg Goodman (56yo)

21.3yrs

Tenure

AU$12,800,759

Compensation

Mr. Gregory Leith Goodman, also known as Greg, serves as Chief Executive Officer of Goodman Logistics (HK) Limited. Mr. Goodman has been the Chief Executive Officer of Goodman Limited since July 1995. Mr.  ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Greg's total compensation ($USD8.72M) is above average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD3.82M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Greg's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

11.4yrs

Average Tenure

50yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: GMG's management team is seasoned and experienced (11.4 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

6.9yrs

Average Tenure

56yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: GMG's board of directors are considered experienced (6.9 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

SellAU$484,701,39924 Sep 19
State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
EntityCompany
Shares31,252,100
Max PriceAU$15.63
BuyAU$256,315,81624 Sep 19
State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
EntityCompany
Shares16,363,219
Max PriceAU$16.07
SellAU$1,343,839,09023 Sep 19
BlackRock, Inc.
EntityCompany
Shares86,721,630
Max PriceAU$15.56
BuyAU$851,667,41423 Sep 19
BlackRock, Inc.
EntityCompany
Shares55,433,171
Max PriceAU$15.53
SellAU$611,25329 Aug 19
Phillip Pryke
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares41,000
Max PriceAU$14.91
BuyAU$16,92429 Aug 19
Rebecca McGrath
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares1,129
Max PriceAU$14.99
BuyAU$35,12229 Aug 19
Ian Ferrier
EntityIndividual
Role
Chairman of the Board
Independent Chairman
Shares2,343
Max PriceAU$14.99
BuyAU$66,99929 Mar 19
David Collins
EntityIndividual
Shares5,000
Max PriceAU$13.40
BuyAU$23,75921 Mar 19
Rebecca McGrath
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares1,778
Max PriceAU$13.36
BuyAU$49,26921 Mar 19
Ian Ferrier
EntityIndividual
Role
Chairman of the Board
Independent Chairman
Shares3,687
Max PriceAU$13.36
SellAU$5,072,00025 Feb 19
Gregory Goodman
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
Group CEO & Director
Shares400,000
Max PriceAU$12.68
SellAU$8,298,32022 Feb 19
Daniel Cornelius Peeters
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Executive Director of Corporate & Director
Shares650,000
Max PriceAU$12.77
BuyAU$108,833,38731 Jan 19
State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
EntityCompany
Shares9,104,709
Max PriceAU$11.97
BuyAU$541,968,24723 Dec 18
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
EntityCompany
Shares48,896,617
Max PriceAU$11.15
SellAU$313,438,07223 Dec 18
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
EntityCompany
Shares28,600,895
Max PriceAU$10.98

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Michael O'Sullivan (52yo)

    Chief Risk Officer

    • Tenure: 0yrs
    • Compensation: AU$3.65m
  • Anthony Rozic (50yo)

    Deputy Group CEO

    • Tenure: 6.9yrs
    • Compensation: AU$4.59m
  • Greg Goodman (56yo)

    Group CEO & Director

    • Tenure: 21.3yrs
    • Compensation: AU$12.80m
  • Nick Kurtis (44yo)

    Group Head of Equities

    • Tenure: 11.9yrs
    • Compensation: AU$5.65m
  • James Inwood (47yo)

    Head of Group Stakeholder Relations

    • Tenure: 0yrs
    • Compensation: AU$1.02m
  • Carl Bicego (49yo)

    Group Head of Legal & Company Secretary

    • Tenure: 2.7yrs
  • Danny Peeters (51yo)

    Executive Director of Corporate & Director

    • Tenure: 6.9yrs
    • Compensation: AU$3.46m
  • Alison Brink (50yo)

    Group General Manager of Marketing & Communications

    • Tenure: 13.9yrs
  • Nick Vrondas (49yo)

    Group Chief Financial Officer

    • Tenure: 10.8yrs
    • Compensation: AU$5.65m
  • Michelle Chaperon

    Head of Group Corporate Communications

    • Tenure: 0yrs

Board Members

  • Stephen Johns (72yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 1.9yrs
    • Compensation: AU$305.00k
  • Phil Pryke (68yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 9.2yrs
    • Compensation: AU$379.38k
  • Ian Ferrier (78yo)

    Independent Chairman

    • Tenure: 11.1yrs
    • Compensation: AU$625.00k
  • Anthony Rozic (50yo)

    Deputy Group CEO

    • Tenure: 6.9yrs
    • Compensation: AU$4.59m
  • Greg Goodman (56yo)

    Group CEO & Director

    • Tenure: 21.3yrs
    • Compensation: AU$12.80m
  • Penny Winn

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 1.8yrs
    • Compensation: AU$280.00k
  • Danny Peeters (51yo)

    Executive Director of Corporate & Director

    • Tenure: 6.9yrs
    • Compensation: AU$3.46m
  • Rebecca McGrath (54yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 7.7yrs
    • Compensation: AU$295.00k
  • Chris Green

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 0.7yrs
    • Compensation: AU$46.24k

Company Information

Goodman Group's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Goodman Group
  • Ticker: GMG
  • Exchange: ASX
  • Founded: 2001
  • Industry: Industrial REITs
  • Sector: Real Estate
  • Market Cap: AU$26.037b
  • Shares outstanding: 1.83b
  • Website: https://www.goodman.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Goodman Group
  • 60 Castlereagh Street
  • Level 17
  • Sydney
  • New South Wales
  • 2000
  • Australia

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
GMGASX (Australian Securities Exchange)YesStapled SecuritiesAUAUDFeb 2005
MY4DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesStapled SecuritiesDEEURFeb 2005
GMGS.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesStapled SecuritiesUSUSDFeb 2005
GMGCHIA (Chi-X Australia)YesStapled SecuritiesAUAUDFeb 2005

Biography

Goodman Group is an integrated property group with operations throughout Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the United Kingdom, North America and Brazil. Goodman Group, comprised of the stapled entities ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/12/11 10:32
End of Day Share Price2019/12/11 00:00
Earnings2019/06/30
Annual Earnings2019/06/30


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.