Liontown Resources Limited

CHIA:LTR Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$1.3b

Liontown Resources Valuation

Is LTR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LTR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LTR (A$0.53) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$2.77)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LTR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LTR?

Key metric: As LTR is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for LTR. This is calculated by dividing LTR's market cap by their current book value.
What is LTR's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio1.7x
BookAU$770.07m
Market CapAU$1.29b

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does LTR's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for LTR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.9x
ADT Adriatic Metals
5.2x47.6%AU$1.3b
WA1 WA1 Resources
12.8x52.3%AU$920.9m
PRN Perenti
0.7x23.3%AU$1.3b
ILU Iluka Resources
0.9x2.7%AU$2.1b
LTR Liontown Resources
1.7x57.7%AU$1.3b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: LTR is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.7x) compared to the peer average (4.9x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does LTR's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

19 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAS Hastings Technology Metals
0.2x12.6%US$35.06m
JRV Jervois Global
0.1xn/aUS$20.28m
ADN Andromeda Metals
0.1x25.5%US$12.86m
CTO Citigold
0.1xn/aUS$7.51m
LTR 1.7xIndustry Avg. 1.0xNo. of Companies96PB00.81.62.43.24+
19 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: LTR is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.7x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (1x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LTR's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LTR PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio1.7x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate LTR's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LTR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.53
AU$0.83
+56.6%
36.1%AU$1.40AU$0.45n/a13
Dec ’25AU$0.73
AU$0.85
+15.4%
34.9%AU$1.40AU$0.45n/a13
Nov ’25AU$0.81
AU$0.94
+16.4%
36.8%AU$1.75AU$0.45n/a13
Oct ’25AU$0.79
AU$1.07
+36.2%
34.3%AU$1.90AU$0.65n/a13
Sep ’25AU$0.74
AU$1.12
+50.3%
29.8%AU$1.90AU$0.65n/a13
Aug ’25AU$0.97
AU$1.14
+16.8%
28.5%AU$1.90AU$0.65n/a13
Jul ’25AU$0.89
AU$1.21
+35.6%
27.7%AU$1.85AU$0.70n/a12
Jun ’25AU$1.30
AU$1.32
+1.9%
23.5%AU$1.85AU$0.70n/a12
May ’25AU$1.23
AU$1.31
+6.4%
24.5%AU$1.85AU$0.70n/a12
Apr ’25AU$1.17
AU$1.32
+13.0%
24.9%AU$1.90AU$0.70n/a12
Mar ’25AU$1.28
AU$1.08
-15.5%
22.8%AU$1.60AU$0.70n/a12
Feb ’25AU$0.99
AU$1.21
+21.1%
33.4%AU$2.30AU$0.75n/a12
Jan ’25AU$1.65
AU$1.75
+6.2%
26.3%AU$2.75AU$1.00n/a12
Dec ’24AU$1.37
AU$1.97
+44.4%
24.8%AU$2.75AU$1.30AU$0.7311
Nov ’24AU$1.57
AU$2.03
+30.0%
22.7%AU$2.75AU$1.30AU$0.8111
Oct ’24AU$2.94
AU$2.77
-5.7%
19.6%AU$3.35AU$1.35AU$0.799
Sep ’24AU$2.62
AU$2.64
+0.8%
18.8%AU$3.35AU$1.40AU$0.7410
Aug ’24AU$2.76
AU$2.67
-3.4%
17.3%AU$3.35AU$1.50AU$0.9710
Jul ’24AU$2.84
AU$2.67
-6.2%
17.3%AU$3.35AU$1.50AU$0.8910
Jun ’24AU$2.72
AU$2.67
-2.0%
17.3%AU$3.35AU$1.50AU$1.3010
May ’24AU$2.71
AU$2.61
-3.9%
18.3%AU$3.35AU$1.50AU$1.239
Apr ’24AU$2.58
AU$2.48
-3.7%
21.2%AU$3.35AU$1.50AU$1.179
Mar ’24AU$1.41
AU$1.93
+36.6%
21.8%AU$2.81AU$1.49AU$1.2810
Feb ’24AU$1.54
AU$1.95
+27.0%
25.6%AU$2.81AU$1.49AU$0.997
Jan ’24AU$1.33
AU$2.21
+66.3%
29.1%AU$3.40AU$1.50AU$1.657
Dec ’23AU$2.02
AU$2.41
+19.1%
23.5%AU$3.40AU$1.80AU$1.376

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/21 23:09
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Liontown Resources Limited is covered by 19 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Glyn LawcockBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Josh KannourakisBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Aryan NoroziBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited