Newcrest Mining Limited

ASX:NCM Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$20.8b

Newcrest Mining Valuation

Is NCM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NCM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NCM (A$23.35) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$26.1)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NCM is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NCM?

Key metric: As NCM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NCM. This is calculated by dividing NCM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NCM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.2x
EarningsUS$778.00m
Market CapUS$13.37b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NCM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NCM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.5x
NST Northern Star Resources
27.4x17.2%AU$17.6b
EVN Evolution Mining
22.7x9.3%AU$9.6b
PRU Perseus Mining
6.9x-9.3%AU$3.6b
WGX Westgold Resources
28.8x35.3%AU$2.8b
NCM Newcrest Mining
17.2x12.2%AU$20.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NCM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the peer average (30.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NCM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.7x-13.3%US$213.99m
RHI Red Hill Minerals
1.7xn/aUS$164.92m
GRR Grange Resources
2.4xn/aUS$162.55m
PTN Patronus Resources
1.8xn/aUS$50.08m
NCM 17.2xIndustry Avg. 12.8xNo. of Companies10PE01020304050+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NCM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (12.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NCM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NCM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.2x
Fair PE Ratio20.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NCM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NCM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
AU$27.11
0%
10.9%AU$32.01AU$22.46n/a6
Dec ’25n/a
AU$27.11
0%
10.9%AU$32.01AU$22.46n/a6
Nov ’25n/a
AU$27.11
0%
10.9%AU$32.01AU$22.46n/a6
Oct ’25n/a
AU$27.11
0%
10.9%AU$32.01AU$22.46n/a6
Sep ’25n/a
AU$27.11
0%
10.9%AU$32.01AU$22.46n/a6
Aug ’25n/a
AU$27.11
0%
10.9%AU$32.01AU$22.46n/a6
Jul ’25n/a
AU$27.11
0%
10.9%AU$32.01AU$22.46n/a6
Jun ’25n/a
AU$27.11
0%
10.9%AU$32.01AU$22.46n/a6
May ’25n/a
AU$27.11
0%
10.9%AU$32.01AU$22.46n/a6
Apr ’25n/a
AU$27.11
0%
10.9%AU$32.01AU$22.46n/a6
Mar ’25n/a
AU$27.11
0%
10.9%AU$32.01AU$22.46n/a6
Feb ’25n/a
AU$27.11
0%
10.9%AU$32.01AU$22.46n/a6
Jan ’25n/a
AU$27.11
0%
10.9%AU$32.01AU$22.46n/a6
Dec ’24n/a
AU$27.11
0%
10.9%AU$32.01AU$22.46n/a6
Nov ’24AU$23.35
AU$27.36
+17.2%
10.7%AU$32.74AU$22.97n/a7
Oct ’24AU$24.52
AU$27.76
+13.2%
10.9%AU$33.12AU$23.01n/a11
Sep ’24AU$25.77
AU$27.64
+7.2%
12.2%AU$33.50AU$21.32n/a11
Aug ’24AU$26.79
AU$28.18
+5.2%
10.4%AU$33.44AU$22.44n/a11
Jul ’24AU$26.42
AU$28.28
+7.0%
9.5%AU$33.06AU$22.81n/a12
Jun ’24AU$26.30
AU$29.67
+12.8%
9.8%AU$33.95AU$23.42n/a12
May ’24AU$28.50
AU$29.99
+5.2%
9.5%AU$33.36AU$22.98n/a14
Apr ’24AU$26.85
AU$27.18
+1.2%
9.2%AU$32.03AU$22.67n/a14
Mar ’24AU$23.38
AU$26.06
+11.5%
8.4%AU$31.51AU$22.47n/a15
Feb ’24AU$22.29
AU$25.11
+12.7%
9.7%AU$30.27AU$21.17n/a17
Jan ’24AU$20.64
AU$24.65
+19.4%
12.7%AU$31.67AU$20.59n/a17
Dec ’23AU$20.66
AU$23.90
+15.7%
13.2%AU$31.26AU$20.23n/a17

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2023/11/07 13:14
End of Day Share Price 2023/10/26 00:00
Earnings2023/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Newcrest Mining Limited is covered by 29 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Daniel MorganBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited