Stock Analysis

Despite shrinking by AU$87m in the past week, West African Resources (ASX:WAF) shareholders are still up 373% over 5 years

ASX:WAF
Source: Shutterstock

Long term investing can be life changing when you buy and hold the truly great businesses. While not every stock performs well, when investors win, they can win big. For example, the West African Resources Limited (ASX:WAF) share price is up a whopping 373% in the last half decade, a handsome return for long term holders. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 44% gain in the last three months.

In light of the stock dropping 5.7% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

Check out our latest analysis for West African Resources

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the last half decade, West African Resources became profitable. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains. Since the company was unprofitable five years ago, but not three years ago, it's worth taking a look at the returns in the last three years, too. We can see that the West African Resources share price is up 47% in the last three years. Meanwhile, EPS is up 12% per year. That makes the EPS growth rather close to the annualized share price gain of 14% over the same period. So you could reasonably conclude that investor sentiment towards the stock has remained pretty steady, over time. Arguably the share price is reflecting the earnings per share.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
ASX:WAF Earnings Per Share Growth June 11th 2024

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that West African Resources shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 58% over one year. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 36% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for West African Resources you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if West African Resources might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

Access Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.