Northern Star Resources Limited Just Missed EPS By 7.0%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX:NST) last week reported its latest half-year results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of AU$2.9b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 7.0% to hit AU$0.44 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Northern Star Resources

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Northern Star Resources' 17 analysts is for revenues of AU$6.40b in 2025. This would reflect a decent 15% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 26% to AU$1.04. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$6.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$1.05 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at AU$18.98. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Northern Star Resources analyst has a price target of AU$23.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$12.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Northern Star Resources' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 33% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 21% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Northern Star Resources is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$18.98, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Northern Star Resources going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Northern Star Resources' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.