If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. This reveals that the company isn't compounding shareholder wealth because returns are falling and its net asset base is shrinking. Having said that, after a brief look, Mitchell Services (ASX:MSV) we aren't filled with optimism, but let's investigate further.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Mitchell Services:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.01 = AU$729k ÷ (AU$111m - AU$39m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2025).
Therefore, Mitchell Services has an ROCE of 1.0%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Metals and Mining industry average of 9.2%.
Check out our latest analysis for Mitchell Services
In the above chart we have measured Mitchell Services' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Mitchell Services .
What Does the ROCE Trend For Mitchell Services Tell Us?
In terms of Mitchell Services' historical ROCE trend, it isn't fantastic. The company used to generate 9.3% on its capital five years ago but it has since fallen noticeably. What's equally concerning is that the amount of capital deployed in the business has shrunk by 22% over that same period. The fact that both are shrinking is an indication that the business is going through some tough times. If these underlying trends continue, we wouldn't be too optimistic going forward.
Our Take On Mitchell Services' ROCE
To see Mitchell Services reducing the capital employed in the business in tandem with diminishing returns, is concerning. It should come as no surprise then that the stock has fallen 21% over the last five years, so it looks like investors are recognizing these changes. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.
One more thing, we've spotted 3 warning signs facing Mitchell Services that you might find interesting.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.