AU$0.66 - That's What Analysts Think Liontown Resources Limited (ASX:LTR) Is Worth After These Results

Liontown Resources Limited (ASX:LTR) last week reported its latest full-year results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues were in line with expectations, at AU$298m, while statutory losses ballooned to AU$0.08 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Liontown Resources from eleven analysts is for revenues of AU$451.1m in 2026. If met, it would imply a sizeable 52% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 38% to AU$0.042. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$445.9m and losses of AU$0.049 per share in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Liontown Resources'future looks a little different to the past, with a cut to the loss per share forecasts in particular.

Check out our latest analysis for Liontown Resources

These new estimates led to the consensus price target rising 5.8% to AU$0.66, with lower forecast losses suggesting things could be looking up for Liontown Resources. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Liontown Resources, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$1.15 and the most bearish at AU$0.35 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Liontown Resources' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 52% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 100% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.1% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Liontown Resources is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Liontown Resources going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Liontown Resources that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.