Evolution Mining Limited Just Recorded A 8.2% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Investors in Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN) had a good week, as its shares rose 8.8% to close at AU$4.10 following the release of its yearly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of AU$3.2b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Evolution Mining surprised by delivering a statutory profit of AU$0.22 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Evolution Mining after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Evolution Mining

Following the latest results, Evolution Mining's 17 analysts are now forecasting revenues of AU$3.72b in 2025. This would be a solid 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 54% to AU$0.33. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$3.73b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.36 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at AU$3.91, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Evolution Mining at AU$4.70 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$3.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Evolution Mining's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 16% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 11% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 1.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Evolution Mining is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Evolution Mining. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$3.91, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Evolution Mining analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Evolution Mining you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.