Stock Analysis

Emerald Resources (ASX:EMR) delivers shareholders enviable 56% CAGR over 5 years, surging 5.3% in the last week alone

ASX:EMR
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We think all investors should try to buy and hold high quality multi-year winners. While not every stock performs well, when investors win, they can win big. For example, the Emerald Resources NL (ASX:EMR) share price is up a whopping 823% in the last half decade, a handsome return for long term holders. This just goes to show the value creation that some businesses can achieve. On top of that, the share price is up 22% in about a quarter. Anyone who held for that rewarding ride would probably be keen to talk about it.

Since it's been a strong week for Emerald Resources shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

We check all companies for important risks. See what we found for Emerald Resources in our free report.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the five years of share price growth, Emerald Resources moved from a loss to profitability. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. We can see that the Emerald Resources share price is up 249% in the last three years. During the same period, EPS grew by 189% each year. This EPS growth is higher than the 52% average annual increase in the share price over the same three years. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
ASX:EMR Earnings Per Share Growth April 19th 2025

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. This free interactive report on Emerald Resources' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

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A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Emerald Resources has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 19% in the last twelve months. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 56% a year, is even better. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Emerald Resources might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.