Core Lithium Future Growth
Future criteria checks 5/6
Core Lithium is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 43.9% and 67.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 39.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 6% in 3 years.
Key information
43.9%
Earnings growth rate
39.46%
EPS growth rate
| Metals and Mining earnings growth | 14.6% |
| Revenue growth rate | 67.1% |
| Future return on equity | 6.00% |
| Analyst coverage | Low |
| Last updated | 22 Apr 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 03
CXO: Higher P/E And Tighter Margins Will Shape Restart Execution Outcomes
Analysts have adjusted their price target on Core Lithium to reflect a higher implied future P/E of about 36.8x and a lower projected profit margin of around 11.8%, indicating a more cautious earnings outlook, while their fair value estimate of A$0.31 per share remains unchanged. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Core Lithium points to a mixed but informative set of views that can help you think about the current valuation and execution risks.Narrative Update • Apr 18
CXO: Future Restart Progress And Execution Risks Will Constrain Returns
The Core Lithium analyst price target has shifted to A$0.31 from A$0.29. Analysts point to updated assumptions on long term revenue growth, profit margins, a slightly higher discount rate, and a lower future P/E multiple as the key drivers of the change.Narrative Update • Apr 03
CXO: Future Project Delivery And Restart Progress Will Support Returns
Analysts have held their Core Lithium fair value estimate steady at A$0.29 per share, with only marginal model tweaks to the discount rate and future P/E assumptions. This reflects a view that the stock's current setup still offers a similar balance of risk and potential reward as before.Narrative Update • Mar 20
CXO: Lower Risk Assumptions And Higher P/E Will Support Future Returns
Analysts have lifted the Core Lithium fair value estimate from A$0.26 to about A$0.29, reflecting updated assumptions on discount rates, forecasts of significant revenue growth, tighter profit margins and a higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent valuation work on Core Lithium sits against a backdrop of busy research activity in other materials names, where analysts have been actively adjusting ratings and price targets in response to share price moves and changing risk assessments.Narrative Update • Mar 05
CXO: Higher Discount Rate And Margin Assumptions Will Shape Future Earnings Profile
Narrative Update on Core Lithium Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Core Lithium from about A$0.09 to A$0.26, citing updated assumptions around a higher projected revenue growth rate, a slightly higher discount rate, a stronger profit margin outlook, and a modestly higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on building materials groups such as Cemex highlights how quickly sentiment can swing when forecasts, price targets, or ratings move, and that is a useful reference point for anyone looking at Core Lithium.Narrative Update • Sep 02
BP33, Shoobridge And Blackbeard Drilling Will Improve Lithium Extraction
Core Lithium’s fair value estimate has declined, as a significant drop in its future P/E multiple more than offsets a modest improvement in expected profit margins, leading consensus analyst price targets down from A$0.108 to A$0.093. What's in the News Core Lithium completed a follow-on equity offering, raising AUD 50 million by issuing 476,190,476 ordinary shares at AUD 0.105 per share with a small discount, including a subsequent direct listing.Analysis Article • Jun 26
Industry Analysts Just Made A Substantial Upgrade To Their Core Lithium Ltd (ASX:CXO) Revenue Forecasts
Celebrations may be in order for Core Lithium Ltd ( ASX:CXO ) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant...
New Narrative • Apr 04
BP33, Shoobridge And Blackbeard Drilling Will Improve Lithium Extraction
Optimizing BP33 and enhancing processing efficiencies may boost future revenue and earnings through improved recoveries and reduced operating costs.Analysis Article • Jan 24
These Analysts Just Made An Incredible Downgrade To Their Core Lithium Ltd (ASX:CXO) EPS Forecasts
Today is shaping up negative for Core Lithium Ltd ( ASX:CXO ) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial...Analysis Article • Jan 21
Core Lithium Ltd's (ASX:CXO) Share Price Boosted 28% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too
Those holding Core Lithium Ltd ( ASX:CXO ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 28% in the last...Analysis Article • Sep 30
Core Lithium Ltd (ASX:CXO) Surges 38% Yet Its Low P/S Is No Reason For Excitement
Despite an already strong run, Core Lithium Ltd ( ASX:CXO ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 38% in the...Analysis Article • Aug 08
Will Core Lithium (ASX:CXO) Spend Its Cash Wisely?
There's no doubt that money can be made by owning shares of unprofitable businesses. For example, biotech and mining...Analysis Article • Jun 30
Calculating The Fair Value Of Core Lithium Ltd (ASX:CXO)
Key Insights The projected fair value for Core Lithium is AU$0.092 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Core...Analysis Article • Mar 02
Returns Are Gaining Momentum At Core Lithium (ASX:CXO)
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Analysis Article • Jan 25
Need To Know: Analysts Just Made A Substantial Cut To Their Core Lithium Ltd (ASX:CXO) Estimates
The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Core Lithium Ltd ( ASX:CXO ), with the analysts making...Analysis Article • Oct 06
New Forecasts: Here's What Analysts Think The Future Holds For Core Lithium Ltd (ASX:CXO)
Core Lithium Ltd ( ASX:CXO ) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial...Analysis Article • Oct 05
Why Core Lithium's (ASX:CXO) Healthy Earnings Aren’t As Good As They Seem
Following the release of a positive earnings report recently, Core Lithium Ltd's ( ASX:CXO ) stock performed well...Analysis Article • Sep 20
Is Core Lithium (ASX:CXO) In A Good Position To Invest In Growth?
Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, although...Analysis Article • Jun 12
Calculating The Fair Value Of Core Lithium Ltd (ASX:CXO)
Key Insights The projected fair value for Core Lithium is AU$0.93 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Core...Analysis Article • Feb 24
An Intrinsic Calculation For Core Lithium Ltd (ASX:CXO) Suggests It's 34% Undervalued
Key Insights Core Lithium's estimated fair value is AU$1.40 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Core Lithium's...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/30/2028 | 303 | 36 | 30 | 45 | 2 |
| 6/30/2027 | 175 | 155 | 156 | 164 | 2 |
| 6/30/2026 | 13 | -25 | -84 | -36 | 2 |
| 12/31/2025 | -2 | -25 | -54 | -34 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | -2 | -24 | -59 | -39 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | -2 | -23 | -63 | -44 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 27 | -40 | -67 | -49 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 55 | -57 | -71 | -53 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 122 | -132 | -118 | -66 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 189 | -207 | -165 | -78 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 187 | -177 | -132 | -15 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 185 | -148 | -98 | 48 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 118 | -68 | -86 | 70 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 51 | 11 | -74 | 91 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 25 | -1 | -112 | 38 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | N/A | -13 | -150 | -14 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | N/A | -10 | -113 | -10 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | N/A | -7 | -75 | -6 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | N/A | -6 | -56 | -6 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | N/A | -5 | -37 | -5 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | N/A | -4 | -24 | -4 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | N/A | -3 | -10 | -2 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | N/A | -3 | -9 | -2 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | N/A | -4 | -8 | -2 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | N/A | -4 | -5 | -2 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | N/A | -4 | -1 | -2 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | N/A | -4 | -3 | -3 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | N/A | -3 | -4 | -3 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | N/A | -3 | N/A | -2 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | N/A | -2 | N/A | -2 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | N/A | -2 | N/A | -2 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | N/A | -2 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | N/A | -2 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | N/A | -2 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | N/A | -2 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | N/A | -2 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | N/A | -2 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | N/A | -2 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | N/A | -2 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | N/A | -2 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 0 | -2 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 0 | -2 | N/A | 0 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 0 | -2 | N/A | 0 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 0 | -2 | N/A | 0 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 0 | -2 | N/A | 0 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 0 | -1 | N/A | 0 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: CXO is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.6%).
Earnings vs Market: CXO is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: CXO is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: CXO's revenue (67.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (6.3% per year).
High Growth Revenue: CXO's revenue (67.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: CXO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (6%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/16 09:56 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/15 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/06/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Core Lithium Ltd is covered by 17 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Dale Koenders | Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited |
| Taylor Guyot | Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited |
| Richard Knights | Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited |