Core Lithium Ltd

ASX:CXO Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$205.7m

Core Lithium Valuation

Is CXO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CXO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CXO (A$0.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$0.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CXO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CXO?

Key metric: As CXO is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for CXO. This is calculated by dividing CXO's market cap by their current revenue.
What is CXO's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.1x
SalesAU$189.49m
Market CapAU$205.73m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does CXO's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for CXO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.8x
PLL Piedmont Lithium
4.3x24.0%AU$311.0m
STA Strandline Resources
2.3x18.6%AU$138.9m
QPM Queensland Pacific Metals
1x19.2%AU$105.9m
DVP Develop Global
3.7x56.7%AU$545.6m
CXO Core Lithium
1.1x-101.0%AU$205.7m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: CXO is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the peer average (2.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does CXO's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

122 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.61.3x2.6%
CXO Core Lithium
 1.1x-101.0%US$134.10m
BHP BHP Group
2.4x-4.1%US$131.53b
FMG Fortescue
2x-5.6%US$36.29b
CXO 1.1xIndustry Avg. 61.3xNo. of Companies122PS020406080100+
122 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.61.3x10.6%
CXO Core Lithium
 1.1x94.0%US$134.10m
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: CXO is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (61.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CXO's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CXO PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.1x
Fair PS Ratio0.01x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: CXO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CXO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.096
AU$0.093
-3.4%
14.7%AU$0.11AU$0.066n/a6
Nov ’25AU$0.11
AU$0.093
-15.7%
14.7%AU$0.11AU$0.066n/a6
Oct ’25AU$0.12
AU$0.091
-20.5%
12.1%AU$0.11AU$0.078n/a6
Sep ’25AU$0.094
AU$0.097
+2.8%
9.8%AU$0.11AU$0.08n/a6
Aug ’25AU$0.10
AU$0.096
-8.8%
9.4%AU$0.11AU$0.08n/a7
Jul ’25AU$0.091
AU$0.11
+16.8%
18.2%AU$0.15AU$0.09n/a8
Jun ’25AU$0.13
AU$0.11
-12.5%
20.1%AU$0.15AU$0.09n/a8
May ’25AU$0.14
AU$0.11
-21.6%
20.1%AU$0.15AU$0.09n/a8
Apr ’25AU$0.15
AU$0.12
-24.2%
24.7%AU$0.15AU$0.06n/a8
Mar ’25AU$0.24
AU$0.14
-42.7%
31.7%AU$0.20AU$0.06n/a8
Feb ’25AU$0.20
AU$0.19
-0.9%
56.2%AU$0.45AU$0.10n/a9
Jan ’25AU$0.25
AU$0.30
+20.0%
44.7%AU$0.55AU$0.10n/a10
Dec ’24AU$0.27
AU$0.38
+41.9%
29.1%AU$0.60AU$0.25n/a10
Nov ’24AU$0.34
AU$0.40
+14.8%
26.7%AU$0.60AU$0.25AU$0.1110
Oct ’24AU$0.41
AU$0.49
+22.0%
28.1%AU$0.80AU$0.34AU$0.1210
Sep ’24AU$0.40
AU$0.49
+22.5%
25.8%AU$0.77AU$0.36AU$0.0948
Aug ’24AU$0.66
AU$0.68
+3.7%
29.0%AU$0.95AU$0.41AU$0.109
Jul ’24AU$0.90
AU$0.91
+1.6%
28.6%AU$1.40AU$0.53AU$0.0919
Jun ’24AU$1.04
AU$0.90
-13.1%
30.5%AU$1.40AU$0.53AU$0.139
May ’24AU$0.95
AU$0.90
-6.3%
29.0%AU$1.35AU$0.56AU$0.148
Apr ’24AU$0.86
AU$0.92
+6.8%
27.9%AU$1.45AU$0.50AU$0.158
Mar ’24AU$0.95
AU$0.98
+2.7%
27.7%AU$1.45AU$0.49AU$0.248
Feb ’24AU$1.13
AU$1.00
-11.7%
31.1%AU$1.45AU$0.49AU$0.206
Jan ’24AU$1.03
AU$1.04
+1.1%
32.8%AU$1.50AU$0.53AU$0.255
Dec ’23AU$1.34
AU$1.28
-4.7%
42.5%AU$1.80AU$0.53AU$0.273
Nov ’23AU$1.44
AU$1.60
+11.1%
6.3%AU$1.70AU$1.50AU$0.342

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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