Stock Analysis

Cokal (ASX:CKA) Is Carrying A Fair Bit Of Debt

ASX:CKA
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David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Cokal Limited (ASX:CKA) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

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How Much Debt Does Cokal Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2023 Cokal had debt of US$20.0m, up from US$16.1m in one year. However, it also had US$1.34m in cash, and so its net debt is US$18.7m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
ASX:CKA Debt to Equity History November 30th 2023

A Look At Cokal's Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Cokal had liabilities of US$23.3m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$18.5m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$1.34m and US$10.1k worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$40.4m.

Cokal has a market capitalization of US$78.6m, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Cokal's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Given its lack of meaningful operating revenue, investors are probably hoping that Cokal finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.

Caveat Emptor

Not only did Cokal's revenue slip over the last twelve months, but it also produced negative earnings before interest and tax (EBIT). Indeed, it lost US$4.5m at the EBIT level. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above does not give us much confidence that company should be using so much debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. Another cause for caution is that is bled US$13m in negative free cash flow over the last twelve months. So suffice it to say we consider the stock very risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 5 warning signs for Cokal you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Cokal is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.