BHP (ASX:BHP) Valuation Check as Samarco Settlement Clears and Battery-Electric Haul Trucks Move to Trial

BHP Group (ASX:BHP) just cleared a major legal overhang, with Australias Federal Court signing off on a AU$110 million Samarco shareholder settlement, while simultaneously pushing ahead on battery electric haul truck trials in the Pilbara.

See our latest analysis for BHP Group.

Investors seem to be welcoming both the cleared Samarco overhang and BHP’s push into lower emission technology, with the share price at A$44.84 and a solid year to date share price return of 12.21 percent alongside a 14.92 percent one year total shareholder return. This suggests steady but not euphoric momentum.

If BHP’s mix of decarbonisation trials and legal clean up has caught your attention, this could be a good moment to explore aerospace and defense stocks as another way to tap into large scale industrial themes.

With earnings supported by strong iron ore and copper prices, modest intrinsic value upside, and Samarco risks receding, the key question now is whether BHP still offers a genuine buying opportunity or if the market is already pricing in its future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 0.8% Undervalued

With BHP last closing at A$44.84 against a narrative fair value of A$45.21, the story leans toward mild upside, built on very specific assumptions.

The analysts have a consensus price target of A$42.871 for BHP Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of A$46.55, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just A$35.82.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what really powers that near fair value call, despite muted growth? The narrative leans on shifting margins, disciplined capex, and a punchy future earnings multiple. Curious how those moving parts fit together, and why the discount rate matters so much here? Dive in to unpack the full valuation logic.

Result: Fair Value of $45.21 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent iron ore dependence and execution risks at projects like Jansen mean that weaker Chinese demand or cost blowouts could quickly erode that modest upside.

Find out about the key risks to this BHP Group narrative.

Build Your Own BHP Group Narrative

If this narrative does not fully match your own view, or you would rather interrogate the numbers yourself, you can build a personalised story in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your BHP Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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