Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL): Valuation Check as Deacon North High-Grade Ore Development Gets Back on Track

Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) has confirmed it is back on track at Deacon North, resuming development and keeping first ore from this high grade zone pencilled in for the June 2026 quarter.

See our latest analysis for Bellevue Gold.

Investors seem to be leaning into that higher grade outlook, with the share price at A$1.425 driving a 22.84 percent 1 month share price return and a 62.86 percent 3 month share price return. The 3 year total shareholder return of 33.8 percent shows momentum has been building over time rather than just in the latest rally.

If Bellevue’s renewed progress has you thinking about what else might be gaining traction, now is an interesting moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

Yet despite the strong run, Bellevue still trades at a notable discount to both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates. This raises the question: is this the next gold producer still mispriced, or are markets already banking every ounce of future growth?

Price-to-Sales of 5.3x: Is it justified?

On a price-to-sales basis, Bellevue Gold’s A$1.425 share price bakes in a 5.3x multiple, leaving it slightly more expensive than close peers.

The price-to-sales ratio compares the company’s market value to its revenue, a useful lens for a still unprofitable gold producer where earnings remain negative.

For Bellevue, that 5.3x figure sends a mixed signal. Compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry’s eye watering 120.2x average, it looks restrained, but versus a fair price-to-sales estimate of about 1.1x and a peer average of 4.8x, investors are paying up for anticipated production ramp up and future cash flows that are not yet showing in the bottom line.

Against that backdrop, the market seems to be pricing Bellevue at a premium to its near term fundamentals, yet at a substantial discount to where our fair ratio work suggests the multiple could migrate if its growth and profitability trajectory plays out.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Bellevue Gold

Result: Price-to-Sales of 5.3x (OVERVALUED)

However, this depends on Bellevue executing its Deacon North ramp up on time and avoiding cost blowouts that could quickly erode the implied upside.

Find out about the key risks to this Bellevue Gold narrative.

Another View: DCF Points the Other Way

While the 5.3x price to sales multiple looks stretched versus a 1.1x fair ratio, our DCF model paints a different picture, suggesting fair value closer to A$2.98. That implies Bellevue could be trading at a steep discount, so is the market underestimating its long term cash generation?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Bellevue Gold for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 928 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Bellevue Gold Narrative

If you want to dig into the numbers yourself or see things differently, you can quickly build a personalised view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Bellevue Gold research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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