Bellevue Gold Limited

ASX:BGL Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$1.7b

Bellevue Gold Valuation

Is BGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BGL (A$1.35) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$6.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BGL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BGL?

Key metric: As BGL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BGL. This is calculated by dividing BGL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BGL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio22.9x
EarningsAU$75.42m
Market CapAU$1.68b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BGL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average58.8x
GMD Genesis Minerals
33.6x23.1%AU$2.8b
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.9x-13.3%AU$345.4m
EMR Emerald Resources
28.8x38.9%AU$2.4b
TIE Tietto Minerals
170.8x61.2%AU$773.9m
BGL Bellevue Gold
22.9x17.9%AU$1.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.9x) compared to the peer average (58.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BGL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.9x-13.3%US$224.98m
GRR Grange Resources
2.6xn/aUS$180.93m
RHI Red Hill Minerals
1.8xn/aUS$179.75m
PTN Patronus Resources
2.4xn/aUS$68.31m
BGL 22.9xIndustry Avg. 12.1xNo. of Companies13PE01224364860+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BGL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.9x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BGL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BGL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio22.9x
Fair PE Ratio20.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BGL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BGL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$1.35
AU$1.81
+34.0%
15.1%AU$2.25AU$1.35n/a6
Nov ’25AU$1.59
AU$1.81
+13.7%
15.1%AU$2.25AU$1.35n/a6
Oct ’25AU$1.33
AU$1.81
+36.8%
21.1%AU$2.54AU$1.25n/a7
Sep ’25AU$1.27
AU$1.93
+52.9%
19.6%AU$2.54AU$1.25n/a7
Aug ’25AU$1.40
AU$1.98
+41.8%
21.9%AU$2.54AU$1.25n/a5
Jul ’25AU$1.80
AU$2.23
+23.7%
9.2%AU$2.54AU$1.85n/a7
Jun ’25AU$1.96
AU$2.17
+10.9%
10.9%AU$2.54AU$1.85n/a6
May ’25AU$1.73
AU$2.12
+22.6%
10.3%AU$2.54AU$1.85n/a6
Apr ’25AU$1.89
AU$1.92
+1.6%
17.1%AU$2.54AU$1.45n/a6
Mar ’25AU$1.55
AU$1.71
+10.7%
9.5%AU$1.90AU$1.45n/a5
Feb ’25AU$1.29
AU$1.71
+32.6%
9.5%AU$1.90AU$1.45n/a5
Jan ’25AU$1.68
AU$1.77
+5.7%
12.1%AU$2.10AU$1.50n/a5
Dec ’24AU$1.72
AU$1.73
+0.6%
9.2%AU$1.90AU$1.50n/a5
Nov ’24AU$1.38
AU$1.71
+23.9%
10.7%AU$1.90AU$1.45AU$1.595
Oct ’24AU$1.39
AU$1.71
+23.5%
11.8%AU$1.90AU$1.40AU$1.335
Sep ’24AU$1.65
AU$1.61
-2.1%
10.1%AU$1.80AU$1.40AU$1.275
Aug ’24AU$1.50
AU$1.61
+7.7%
10.1%AU$1.80AU$1.40AU$1.405
Jul ’24AU$1.27
AU$1.54
+21.3%
8.8%AU$1.70AU$1.40AU$1.805
Jun ’24AU$1.33
AU$1.55
+17.0%
9.6%AU$1.75AU$1.40AU$1.965
May ’24AU$1.38
AU$1.56
+13.2%
10.5%AU$1.75AU$1.40AU$1.734
Apr ’24AU$1.28
AU$1.46
+14.3%
11.2%AU$1.70AU$1.25AU$1.894
Mar ’24AU$1.11
AU$1.44
+29.5%
9.0%AU$1.60AU$1.25AU$1.554
Feb ’24AU$1.15
AU$1.44
+25.0%
9.0%AU$1.60AU$1.25AU$1.294
Jan ’24AU$1.13
AU$1.36
+20.6%
4.8%AU$1.40AU$1.25AU$1.684
Dec ’23AU$1.17
AU$1.24
+5.8%
8.7%AU$1.40AU$1.10AU$1.724
Nov ’23AU$0.76
AU$1.20
+57.9%
11.8%AU$1.40AU$1.00AU$1.384

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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