We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Alumina Valuation

Is AWC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AWC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AWC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue34093.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AWC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AWC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28.2x
LTR Liontown Resources
81.7x51.1%AU$3.2b
CAA Capral
3xn/aAU$146.0m
ILU Iluka Resources
9.7x-20.1%AU$4.7b
EVN Evolution Mining
18.3x16.9%AU$6.0b
AWC Alumina
12.2x10.6%AU$4.9b


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AWC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-4.3%
n/an/an/a


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AWC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AWC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.2x
Fair PE Ratio17.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AWC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.5x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AWC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AWC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$1.70
AU$1.51
-10.7%
19.4%AU$2.05AU$0.97n/a11
Feb ’24AU$1.62
AU$1.52
-6.1%
18.8%AU$2.01AU$0.98n/a11
Jan ’24AU$1.52
AU$1.49
-2.0%
19.4%AU$1.99AU$1.01n/a11
Dec ’23AU$1.58
AU$1.45
-8.0%
19.9%AU$1.98AU$0.94n/a11
Nov ’23AU$1.40
AU$1.49
+6.5%
20.6%AU$2.00AU$0.99n/a11
Oct ’23AU$1.27
AU$1.69
+33.3%
19.3%AU$2.17AU$1.01n/a11
Sep ’23AU$1.46
AU$1.75
+20.0%
23.0%AU$2.88AU$1.36n/a12
Aug ’23AU$1.53
AU$1.75
+14.1%
22.9%AU$2.86AU$1.34n/a12
Jul ’23AU$1.45
AU$2.14
+47.2%
17.6%AU$2.86AU$1.60n/a12
Jun ’23AU$1.67
AU$2.14
+28.1%
13.2%AU$2.74AU$1.80n/a12
May ’23AU$1.81
AU$2.18
+20.3%
13.0%AU$2.78AU$1.83n/a12
Apr ’23AU$2.03
AU$2.15
+6.0%
10.5%AU$2.65AU$1.74n/a12
Mar ’23AU$1.99
AU$2.18
+9.5%
11.5%AU$2.75AU$1.80n/a12
Feb ’23AU$1.88
AU$2.18
+16.0%
10.7%AU$2.54AU$1.80AU$1.6211
Jan ’23AU$1.87
AU$2.21
+18.4%
14.6%AU$2.93AU$1.82AU$1.5211
Dec ’22AU$1.80
AU$2.24
+24.7%
12.3%AU$2.87AU$1.88AU$1.5811
Nov ’22AU$1.96
AU$2.17
+10.9%
12.7%AU$2.75AU$1.80AU$1.4010
Oct ’22AU$2.10
AU$2.03
-3.3%
18.6%AU$2.70AU$1.30AU$1.279
Sep ’22AU$1.86
AU$1.87
+0.7%
12.5%AU$2.19AU$1.30AU$1.4610
Aug ’22AU$1.67
AU$1.89
+13.4%
12.8%AU$2.21AU$1.30AU$1.5310
Jul ’22AU$1.63
AU$1.93
+18.7%
11.1%AU$2.24AU$1.49AU$1.4510
Jun ’22AU$1.71
AU$1.89
+11.0%
13.6%AU$2.20AU$1.35AU$1.6710
May ’22AU$1.73
AU$1.86
+7.7%
13.7%AU$2.20AU$1.35AU$1.8111
Apr ’22AU$1.77
AU$1.93
+8.9%
13.1%AU$2.28AU$1.37AU$2.0311
Mar ’22AU$1.62
AU$1.92
+18.3%
13.7%AU$2.27AU$1.36AU$1.9912
Feb ’22AU$1.68
AU$1.92
+14.4%
13.4%AU$2.24AU$1.45AU$1.8812


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