Stock Analysis

3 ASX Stocks Including Medibank Private That May Be Priced Below Estimated Value

ASX:VEA
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In recent trading sessions, the Australian market has faced downward pressure, with the ASX200 closing 0.67% lower at 8,150 points amid investor concerns over Middle Eastern conflicts. Despite this volatility, sectors like Energy and Health Care have shown resilience, suggesting opportunities may exist for discerning investors seeking stocks potentially priced below their estimated value. In such an environment, identifying undervalued stocks can be crucial for those looking to capitalize on market inefficiencies.

Top 10 Undervalued Stocks Based On Cash Flows In Australia

NameCurrent PriceFair Value (Est)Discount (Est)
Duratec (ASX:DUR)A$1.395A$2.5946.1%
Charter Hall Group (ASX:CHC)A$15.92A$31.4449.4%
Genesis Minerals (ASX:GMD)A$2.04A$3.9248%
Ingenia Communities Group (ASX:INA)A$4.97A$9.4147.2%
IperionX (ASX:IPX)A$3.40A$6.7049.2%
Millennium Services Group (ASX:MIL)A$1.145A$2.2448.9%
IDP Education (ASX:IEL)A$15.19A$27.8045.4%
Megaport (ASX:MP1)A$7.36A$13.4445.2%
Superloop (ASX:SLC)A$1.71A$3.3148.4%
Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN)A$50.99A$95.6346.7%

Click here to see the full list of 46 stocks from our Undervalued ASX Stocks Based On Cash Flows screener.

Let's uncover some gems from our specialized screener.

Medibank Private (ASX:MPL)

Overview: Medibank Private Limited offers private health insurance and health services in Australia, with a market cap of A$10.08 billion.

Operations: The company's revenue is primarily derived from Health Insurance, contributing A$7.90 billion, and Medibank Health services, which add A$360.10 million.

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 43.5%

Medibank Private is trading at A$3.66, significantly below its estimated fair value of A$6.48, suggesting it may be undervalued based on cash flows. Despite a recent net income of A$3.9 million, the company's earnings are forecast to grow 28.1% annually, outpacing the Australian market's growth rate of 12.2%. However, its dividend yield of 4.54% is not well covered by earnings, posing potential sustainability concerns.

ASX:MPL Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2024
ASX:MPL Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2024

National Storage REIT (ASX:NSR)

Overview: National Storage REIT is the largest self-storage provider in Australia and New Zealand, operating over 225 centers that offer tailored storage solutions to more than 90,000 residential and commercial customers, with a market cap of A$3.50 billion.

Operations: The company's revenue segment includes A$354.69 million from the operation and management of storage centers.

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 37.1%

National Storage REIT, trading at A$2.53, is valued below its estimated fair value of A$4.02, highlighting potential undervaluation based on cash flows. Despite a drop in net income to A$28.93 million for the year ended June 30, 2024, earnings are projected to grow significantly at 20% annually over the next three years. The company maintains a reliable dividend yield of 4.35%, though its return on equity is forecasted to remain low at 4.6%.

ASX:NSR Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2024
ASX:NSR Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2024

Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA)

Overview: Viva Energy Group Limited is an energy company operating in Australia, Singapore, and Papua New Guinea with a market cap of A$4.80 billion.

Operations: The company generates revenue from three main segments: Convenience & Mobility (A$11.43 billion), Commercial & Industrial (A$16.97 billion), and Energy & Infrastructure (A$7.92 billion).

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 16.8%

Viva Energy Group, currently trading at A$3.02, is below its fair value estimate of A$3.63, suggesting some undervaluation based on cash flows. The company recently turned profitable with a net income of A$80 million for the half-year ending June 2024, contrasting a net loss previously. Despite high earnings growth forecasts of 26.43% annually over three years, dividends have decreased and are not well-covered by earnings due to significant insider selling and shareholder dilution concerns.

ASX:VEA Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2024
ASX:VEA Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2024

Key Takeaways

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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