AUB Group Limited Reported Underlying Revenues In Line With Estimates: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

This article has been amended following clarification from the company representatives.

AUB Group Limited ( ASX:AUB ) missed statutory earnings with its latest full-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Earnings came in short of expectations, but underlying revenues of AU$1.33b were in line with expectations, which also came in at AU$1.33b. Statutory earnings per share came in at AU$1.25, also falling 2.9% short. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on AUB Group after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for AUB Group

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from AUB Group's nine analysts is for revenues of AU$1.44b in 2025. This would reflect a meaningful 8.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 22% to AU$1.43. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$1.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$1.44 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at AU$34.47. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic AUB Group analyst has a price target of AU$37.65 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$33.75. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that AUB Group's rate of growth is expected to decline slightly, with the forecast 8.14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025, slower than its historical growth of 19.7% p.a. over the past five years (when looking at Total operating entities revenue). Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 2.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that AUB Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$34.47, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on AUB Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple AUB Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for AUB Group you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.